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Clouded Judgement - 3.28.25 - The New AI Risk Curve

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Let’s rewind the clock back to the pre-cloud days. Fast forward to the launch of AWS and the public cloud. There was an exponential drop off in costs / complexity to start a company going from on prem to cloud.

Cloud 299
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Approaching Half a Million Customers: How to Win in SMB with BILL CEO and Founder René Lacerte

SaaStr

He had the idea that the Cloud, not called the Cloud back then, would enable two entities to see the same transaction from their perspective. With a trillion in payment volume coming through BILL in the last five years, managing the payment and compliance engine has required an ongoing effort of a sizable team.

SMB 312
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The Quiet Liquidity Crisis in SaaS

SaaStr

And what you can see is there is really almost no liquidity for startups and scale-ups in SaaS and Cloud at the moment. Now, to some extent, the issues here have been masked by several factors: The VC engine continues, more or less, and has been re-energized by AI. Epic times. See above from Thomasz. Deals are fast and furious.

SaaS 316
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5 Interesting Learnings from Palantir at $2.7 Billion in ARR

SaaStr

So some Cloud and SaaS stocks are on fire, even now. Why is Palantir the highest valued public SaaS and Cloud stock? Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is a Year Old But Fueling $159m in Q2 Bookings Alone To some Cloud and SaaS leaders, AI is a table-stakes addition. And a true engine of growth. #9. Billion ARR.

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5 Interesting Learnings from Atlassian at $4.75 Billion in ARR

SaaStr

Raising Guidance and Growth Rate for Cloud Revenue To +24% a Year That’s pretty darn impressive growth at almost $5B in ARR, and just as importantly, they’re raising their prediction here. #2. The Atlassian engine just keeps on running. Wall Street is happy. Let’s dig in. 5 Interesting Learnings: #1.

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My Laptop is Faster than Your Cloud : Announcing MotherDuck

Tom Tunguz

My laptop is faster than your cloud. Instead of requiring a scale-out database in the sky, most analyses are faster with an optimized database on your computer that can leverage the cloud when needed. For the last ten years, the data ecosystem has focused on big data - the bigger the data set, the more exciting.

Cloud 356
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5 Interesting Learnings from Cloudflare at $1.7 Billion in ARR

SaaStr

So Cloud and SaaS have had a bit of a rollercoaster the past 4 years, from the boom times of 2020-2021, to the tougher times overall of 2023, to the AI boom of 2024+. 221,000 Total Paying Customers, But 65% of Revenue From 3,200 Large Customers This is what you should see when a “long tail” engine is just working at scale.

Scaling 278