Clouded Judgement

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Clouded Judgement 12.20.24 - The Fed Bomb

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now The Fed Bomb The markets were enjoying a nice little Santa Claus rally until this Wednesday when the Fed decided to shake things up! The Nasdaq dropped >3.5%, which I believe is the largest drop after a fed meeting going back to the onset of Covid.

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Clouded Judgement 7.25.25 - TAMs Lie

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now TAMs Lie One of the easiest traps I fall into as an investor (which is even harder during platform shifts) is trying to evaluate a startup through the lens of the existing market. But early in big transitions, TAM analysis often leads to the wrong conclusions.

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Clouded Judgement 6.6.25 - How to Spot ERR

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now How to Spot ERR Last March (crazy it’s already been a year since I wrote this post!) I wrote an article about ERR vs ARR. Here’s a quick summary of that post. ARR (annual recurring revenue) is a hallmark SaaS metric rooted in predictability.

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ServiceTitan: Benchmarking the S1 Data

Clouded Judgement

Today ServiceTitan filed their initial S1 statement. A S-1 is a document companies file with the SEC in preparation for listing their shares on an exchange like the NYSE or NASDAQ. The document contains a plethora of information on the company including a general overview, up to date financials, risk factors to the business, cap table highlights and much more.

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A Look Back at Q1 '25 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Q1 ‘25 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. The 60 companies that I’ll discuss here (which is not an exhaustive list, but is still comprehensive) all reported quarterly earnings sometime between April 23rd – June 11th. In this post, I’ll take a data-driven approach in evaluating the overall group’s performance, and highlight individual standouts along the way.

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Figma - Benchmarking the S1 Data

Clouded Judgement

Yesterday Figma filed their initial Form S-1 statement. I wrote about Figma back in Feb ‘21 for those looking for a more detailed breakdown of what the business looked like at the time (a lot has changed!). A Form S-1 is a document companies file with the SEC in preparation for listing their shares on an exchange like the NYSE or NASDAQ. The document contains a plethora of information on the company including a general overview, up to date financials, risk factors to the business, cap tabl

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Clouded Judgement 6.27.25 - New Rules For a New Game

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now New Rules For a New Game One of the biggest shifts happening in startups right now is that the old rule of thumbs for how you build a successful software startup just don’t hold in the age of AI. Or at least, they don’t hold if you’re trying to build a breakout company… So many of these markets are still wide open.

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