Clouded Judgement

MARCH 10, 2023

Growth Deceleration of Consumption Companies So far, 2023 guides have not been pretty for consumption software companies. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. It sounds like most are guiding as if there’s no improvement to consumption trends coming throughout the full year.

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Chart Mogul

DECEMBER 20, 2023

In January, venture capitalist Fred Wilson wrote “Surviving is thriving in 2023” and I think he couldn’t have been more right. This year has been tough, and the whole SaaS industry has experienced a delayed hangover effect. This year has been tough, and the whole SaaS industry has experienced a delayed hangover effect.

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SaaStr

JANUARY 3, 2023

Simplify the team for 2023. — Jason Be Kind Lemkin  (@jasonlk) January 3, 2023. And the more existing customers you visit in person, the better the upsell and revenue retention. Want to increase your revenue retention? Have a weekly 1-on-1 with a VP/direct report that you don’t have one with right now.

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Clouded Judgement

APRIL 19, 2024

Their GAAP revenue grew 5% in 2023, and 29% in Q4 ‘23 YoY. Rubrik’s subscription ARR was $784m at the end of 2023 and growing 47% YoY. For context, full year GAAP revenue in 2023 was $628m. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. NTM revenue multiple.

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Clouded Judgement

MARCH 1, 2024

Funds have gotten quite large and haven’t deployed much in 2022 / 2023. The below chart shows the aggregate net new ARR added each quarter for the subset of companies who have reported Q4 so far (set of ~45 companies). The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years.

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Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Subscribe now ServiceNow Kicks Off Q4 Earnings Season ServiceNow kicked off Q4 earnings season on Wednesday (they are almost always the first software company to report), and I thought I’d dig in to see if they left any clues for what we should expect for the broader software market. Follow along to stay up to date!

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Chart Mogul

MAY 24, 2023

I couldn’t be more excited to launch the 2nd edition of the ChartMogul SaaS Benchmarks Report. In this report, we analyze anonymized and aggregated data from over 2,100 SaaS businesses to bring you the latest SaaS benchmarks and growth trends. The top decile of public SaaS companies grew 48% in 2022 (vs.

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Benchmarks SaaS PayPal Retention 52

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Below you can see the top performers from 2023. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement

MAY 26, 2023

Early Look at May Consumption Trends This week kicked of Q1 earnings reports for companies with April quarter ends. Azure / Confluent / Datadog reported a few weeks back (they all had March quarter ends), and their commentary suggested the worst was behind us. This means we got commentary for the first time on May trends.

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Chart Mogul

JUNE 9, 2023

What can be said about growth in the SaaS marketplace in 2023? Our data shows an uptick in 2023, possibly a … What can be said about growth in the SaaS marketplace in 2023? Our data shows an uptick in 2023, possibly a … What can be said about growth in the SaaS marketplace in 2023?

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Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2023

The 63 companies that I’ll discuss here (which is not an exhaustive list, but is still comprehensive) all reported quarterly earnings sometime between January 25th – March 30th. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

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Clouded Judgement

MAY 12, 2023

Earnings Update So far about half of the cloud software universe has reported Q1 earnings (43 companies in the universe I track). Of the 43 companies to report, 38 gave guidance for Q2. There are some outliers, but for the universe who’ve reported so far the takeaway is 2023 guides were de-risked.

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Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 27, 2023

Azure (Microsoft) Quarter The week the first of the cloud giants reported - Azure. The initial report sent Microsoft shares up 5% after hours. Early Look at 2023 Guides Given the Azure weakness reported on Tuesday, all software tumbled Wednesday morning with most names down 5-10%. Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement

JUNE 20, 2023

The 63 companies that I’ll discuss here (which is not an exhaustive list, but is still comprehensive) all reported quarterly earnings sometime between April 2th – June 8th. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

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Chart Mogul

JUNE 1, 2023

Companies with best-in-class retention grew at least 1.8x In an uncertain market, customer retention is key. So if you are keeping a close eye on your retention metrics this year, you’re not alone. Retention is one of the most important metrics when building a successful SaaS business.

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Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 20, 2022

The 67 companies that I’ll discuss here (which is not an exhaustive list, but is still comprehensive) all reported quarterly earnings sometime between October 24th – December 12th. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

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Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 13, 2023

That was more broadly a period of ZIRP, and it’s interesting that today the 10Y isn’t hugely different from where it was in the period of 2010 - 2020 Morgan Stanley CIO Survey Everyone is eagerly awaiting 2023 forecasts to be “de-risked.” growth in 2023 (so not much change in 1 quarter).

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Clouded Judgement

MARCH 3, 2023

Snowflake reported this week with interesting results. 3 months ago they guided to 47% growth for 2023. The red dot is what they’re guided to for the full year 2023 growth (which means the quarterly YoY growth in Q4 ‘23 would be lower than the red dot which is at 24% ). This week, they cut that figure to 40%.

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Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

I’ll report more on this as we start getting to the start of Q4 earnings season in the end of January. If we look at where estimates were in the fall (for year end 2024), vs where they were at the end of 2023, the median company saw their 2024 consensus estimate fall 1%. So a drop, but not a meaningful one.

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Clouded Judgement

MAY 5, 2023

Early Learnings from Q1 Reports Another big week of software learnings. JFrog told us that “despite customers taking steps to be more efficient in their cloud consumption, we saw acceleration of cloud usage in both pay-as-you-go and annual SaaS customers.” 2023 numbers are probably close to fairly de-risked.

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User Pilot

APRIL 14, 2023

Which of the currently available digital adoption platforms is the best choice for product, marketing, and customer success teams in 2023? Hubspot) 12 Best digital adoption tools to explore in 2023 Now that we know what to look for in digital adoption platforms, let’s look at our top 12 picks. Maybe something completely else?

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Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

This week Walmart and Home Depot reported earnings (I know, not the usual cloud software suspects!). As I noted above, so far companies are telling us 2023 estimates are ok. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Follow along to stay up to date! Top 5 Median: 11.5x

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Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

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Cloud Azure Revenue Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 24, 2023

The end result was the expected result prior to the banking crisis - a 25bps hike 2023 Full Year Guides We’re nearly through Q4 ‘22 earnings season. The chart below shows 2023 guides vs 2023 consensus estimates to star the year. The chart below shows 2023 guides vs 2023 consensus estimates to star the year.

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Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 6, 2023

Cloud Downgrades This week UBS came out with a couple research reports citing concerns in AWS / Azure growth. As I’ve talked about before, the big risk for 2023 are fundamentals - are forward estimates too high? The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years.

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ChurnZero

NOVEMBER 11, 2022

These are just some of the findings in this year’s Customer Success Leadership Study, ChurnZero’s third annual report on the top trends and opportunities in Customer Success, presented in partnership with ESG and sponsored by Higher Logic Vanilla and involve.ai. of Customer Success teams now report into the C-suite. of companies.

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Leadership Trends Customer Success Investment 98

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

The graph below shows the difference between 2024 consensus growth rates and 2023 consensus growth rates (so 2024 growth minus 2023 growth). The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Right now – there is a level of re-acceleration baked in to 2024 estimates.

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Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 13, 2023

growth in 2023. The chart below shows the evolution of this Up-To-Down quarterly ratio for the last few years Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

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Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

The expected budget growth for 2023 currently sits at 2.8%. So clearly the early expectations for growth in 2023 are coming in low. Within the broader IT budgets, software did have the highest growth expectations for 2023 at 3.1%. at the far right is the initial expectation for 2023 budget growth. The purple dot at 2.8%

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Chart Mogul

JANUARY 11, 2024

Access the most current SaaS performance benchmarks available on the market. At ChartMogul, we have a unique view of the SaaS industry’s performance based on aggregated and anonymized subscription data. What’s the benchmark for customer retention rate, net revenue retention rate, and gross revenue retention rate this month?

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Benchmarks Marketing Social Media Subscription 52

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

There are certainly some deals that happened in 2023 that haven’t announced yet (there’s always a lag), so I’d expect the 2023 bar to be slightly higher once everything has announced. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years.

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Chart Mogul

MARCH 23, 2023

And, is your poor retention the reason for your slower growth in 2023? If you’re unsure, check your retention metrics. Gross revenue retention (GRR) and net revenue retention (NRR) are the key metrics to understand how well … How good is your business at retaining customers?

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Retention Metrics Revenue Scale 52

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 20, 2023

In it he said “we’re very optimistic about 2023…not a chance for an IT recession in 2023…we’re hiring (when asked about a company like Salesforce who just announced a reduction in force).” ” Overall, he painted a different picture about 2023 than the consensus narrative.

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User Pilot

OCTOBER 27, 2023

We also look at the pros and cons of using Mixpanel cohort reports and the reasons you may want to consider an alternative product analytics tool for this job! The easiest way to create a cohort in Mixpanel is through the retention report. How do I create a user cohort report in Mixpanel? Mixpanel retention report.

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Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 23, 2022

As I’ve said many times before, in 2023 the focus for software valuations will completely shift from interest rates (and multiples) to fundamentals. 2023 consensus estimates starting to come down. Wrapping this all up, we’re now starting to see 2023 estimates revised down. Q3 was a tough quarter.

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User Pilot

JULY 18, 2023

Customization – so that you can set it up for the unique requirements of your SaaS operation. 15 best product management software solutions of 2023 Here’s our list of product management software tools that can help you achieve your product goals. Such insights enable you to make informed roadmap decisions.

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Software Review Software Management Azure 90

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 11, 2023

Subscribe now Datadog Consumption This week we got another earnings report from a key consumption player: Datadog’s Q2. The good news is gross retention (ie churn) stayed constant. In summary, I don’t expect real AI tailwinds to show up in non-hyperscaler businesses in a meaningful way through the rest of 2023.

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