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Clouded Judgement - 3.28.25 - The New AI Risk Curve

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Let’s rewind the clock back to the pre-cloud days. By the time they got their competitor up and off the ground, that first mover may already be at $100m+ in revenue and at escape velocity. Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 3.21.25 - M&A Roars Back

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. With more recent cloud software companies, there was a lot of organic expansion - ie expanding into new markets and capabilities through internal product development. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Top 5 Median: 18.4x

Cloud 189
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Clouded Judgement 12.20.24 - The Fed Bomb

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 6.2x

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ServiceTitan: Benchmarking the S1 Data

Clouded Judgement

There’s a lot of info to digest, so in the sections below I’ll try and pull out the relevant financial information and benchmark it against current cloud businesses. Today, we capture on average approximately 1% of our customers’ GTV as revenue from their subscription to and current usage of our products.

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Clouded Judgement 5.16.25 - Net New ARR Trends

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. For those who don’t, I will take quarterly subscription revenue x 4 as a proxy for ARR. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! For some public companies, they disclose ARR.

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5 Interesting Learnings from Atlassian at $4.75 Billion in ARR

SaaStr

Revenue growth is up 21% overall, and subscription growth is up 33% — at almost $5 Billion in ARR. Raising Guidance and Growth Rate for Cloud Revenue To +24% a Year That’s pretty darn impressive growth at almost $5B in ARR, and just as importantly, they’re raising their prediction here. #2.

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Clouded Judgement 1.24.25 - The Year of Enterprise AI

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.