Tom Tunguz

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Yesterday, both Google and Microsoft announced their earnings for their cloud businesses. ” “Higher-than-expected AI consumption contributed to revenue growth in Azure.” “In Azure, we expect revenue growth to be 26% to 27% in constant currency with an increasing contribution from AI.

AI Search 299

AI Search AI Cloud Azure 299

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 15, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 6.2x

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 161

SaaStr

DECEMBER 14, 2023

In the latest installment of SaaStr’s What’s New series – where we sit down with the leaders in SaaS and Cloud for the inside scoop on what’s top of mind and what’s new, SaaStr CEO and Jason Lemkin chats with the CMO of Google Cloud, Alison Wagonfeld. They also compete with Microsoft in a big way.

Cloud 245

Cloud Scale AWS AI 245

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The ZIRP period created a lot of confusion given software buying was happening at a break neck pace - and it was easy to think you had differentiated product market fit because your business momentum (ie revenue) suggested you did.

Cloud 284

Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Metrics 284

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. NTM revenue multiple. Their GAAP revenue grew 5% in 2023, and 29% in Q4 ‘23 YoY. Their GAAP revenue grew 5% in 2023, and 29% in Q4 ‘23 YoY. For context, full year GAAP revenue in 2023 was $628m. Top 5 Median: 16.3x

Cloud 141

Cloud Scale Subscription Payment Features 141

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. After the cloud giants reported this week, the timing of the presumed re-acceleration is very much in question. At the same time - Google Cloud also massively decelerated from 28% last quarter to 22% this quarter. which feels unlikely.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Tom Tunguz

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

So far in the first month of the year, AWS year-over-year revenue growth is in the mid-teens. Google: [We] are pushing Google Cloud to Profitability. in revenue, GCP is at -7%, not far off breakeven, but a long way from AWS’ 30% profit margins. With an operating loss of $480m on 7.3b Amazon: Net sales increased $21.4

GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 290

GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Cloud AWS Sales Hiring 290

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Revisiting the “Is Software Expensive” Question The current median revenue multiple for the software universe is 6.4x, which is ~17% below the long term average multiple of 7.8x. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 177

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! ” Should be an exciting earning season!

Cloud 152

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. On top of that, the median NTM revenue multiple has only fell 1% from the start of the year to today. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! vs expectations of +3.4% (and +3.2%

Cloud 141

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 141

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. They don’t expect that aggregate $80m of revenue from 2023 to repeat in 2024. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now 2024 Guides - Are they Conservative? below consensus).

Cloud 161

Cloud Revenue Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Amazon and Snowflake have both made comments recently that Cloud Optimizations are starting to play second fiddle to net new workload growth. We’re still in the early days of the cloud.” Follow along to stay up to date!

AWS 293

AWS Cloud AI Search Cost optimization & reporting 293

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 189

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 189

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 244

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 244

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The second part is a nuanced point - the median cloud software stock is down 2% year-to-date. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! So the 2024 guides would be supportive of that.

Cloud 152

Cloud Metrics Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 6.3x

Cloud 195

Cloud Pricing Startup Revenue 195

SaaStr

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

Discover Bessemer Venture Partners’s annual State of the Cloud report, going through trends, benchmarks, and metrics that underpin the Cloud economy. The past twelve months have been relatively turbulent for Cloud founders. What does this mean for Cloud companies? What does this mean for Cloud companies?

Cloud 253

Cloud Payments Software Review Payment Solutions 253

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Hard Landing? Soft Landing? No Landing?

Cloud 268

Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 268

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 14, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Net New ARR Slowdown It’s no secret that cloud software businesses have seen headwinds over the last couple quarters. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! Headline CPI came in at 5.0%

Cloud 169

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 169

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 11, 2024

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. Beating consensus revenue estimates is the first aspect of a successful quarter.

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Azure AWS 177

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 4, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Update “What we're seeing in the quarter is that those cost optimizations, while still going on, are moderating and many maybe behind us in some of our large customers. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Cost optimization & reporting AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 161

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Azure AWS Software Review 161

IT World

JULY 7, 2023

Global revenue generated by public cloud services topped the $500 billion mark in 2022, according to new data released this week by research firm IDC. Foundational cloud services — which IDC defines as infrastructure, platform and system infrastructure software delivered as services — grew even more quickly, rising by 28.8%

Cloud 110

Cloud Revenue AI Software 110

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Andy Jassy doubled down on some of the commentary he’s made in the last few weeks about cloud optimization headwinds starting to abate. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Headcount Trends 161

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 161

Cloud AWS Metrics Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

MAY 19, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. For those who don’t, I’m using quarterly subscription revenue x4 to estimate ARR. This tells me new bookings still present a headwind (and we’re not seeing improvements yet) Second - Quarterly revenue growth.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 15, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 6.3x

Cloud 183

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 183

SaaStr

MAY 16, 2022

But at end of the day, in Cloud, the question is if CIO and related spend will slow down. So follow AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. So there’s much angst and even panic with so many SaaS and Cloud public stocks down 50% or more from their peaks. They are the Cloud. The post Cloud Stocks May Be Down.

Cloud 256

Cloud Azure AWS Engineering 256

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 18, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 5.7x

Cloud 243

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 243

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. A favorite clip of mine is when Russ Hanneman is talking about how pre-revenue businesses are the best kind of businesses. A favorite clip of mine is when Russ Hanneman is talking about how pre-revenue businesses are the best kind of businesses.

Cloud 161

Cloud Scale Pricing Revenue 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 21, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Morgan Stanley released a report yesterday suggesting “cloud optimizations [were] an intensifying headwind in Q1.” ” They anticipate Q1 will be the peak pressure on cloud spend, and we may see a re-acceleration heading into 2024.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 177

Cloud Scale Compensation Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 13, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! consensus and +3.7% consensus and +4.3%

Cloud 169

Cloud Artificial Intelligence Subscription Payment Features 169

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Subscription 161

Tom Tunguz

OCTOBER 27, 2022

Google Cloud Platform. Infrastructure revenue growth averaged 33% this quarter, which is astounding considering we’re talking about businesses that sum to more than $50b of revenue per quarter. At a 7x multiple of revenue, that is another $84b of market cap creation, in theory. Microsoft Azure. Amazon Web Services.

Cloud 228

Cloud GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure AWS 228

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 152

Cloud Banking Subscription Payment Features 152