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Clouded Judgement 3.29.24 - Q4 Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. For the majority of the software universe, Q4 earning season was not a catalyst for future forecasts to go up. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

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Gartner: Business Software Spend Still Forecast to Rise 11.3% to $880 Billion in 2023

SaaStr

One thing that is clear is that public SaaS and Cloud stock prices are way down. CIOs’ top areas of increased investment for 2023 include “cyber and information security (66%), business intelligence/data analytics (55%) and cloud platforms (50%). The post Gartner: Business Software Spend Still Forecast to Rise 11.3%

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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. I believe one of the bigger reasons software has held up despite the run up in the 10Y to 5% is the expectation for re-acceleration (ie numbers / forecasts going up). Follow along to stay up to date! which feels unlikely.

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Clouded Judgement 1.26.24 - Q4 Earnings Season Kicks Off

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. And when you drill deeper into the Gartner forecast between 2023 and 2027, $3 trillion will be spent on AI. So there's a real appetite to invest in Gen AI, and there's no price sensitivity around it because the business cases are so unbelievable.

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. This has all resulted in the median stock price declining 5% YTD. We then dipped below the trendline as we hit the period of “cloud optimizations,” and things have started to rebound. What’s going on with rates (the 10Y has gone from 3.9%

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Clouded Judgement 1.13.23

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. That was more broadly a period of ZIRP, and it’s interesting that today the 10Y isn’t hugely different from where it was in the period of 2010 - 2020 Morgan Stanley CIO Survey Everyone is eagerly awaiting 2023 forecasts to be “de-risked.”

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Clouded Judgement 5.26.23

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. An element of re-acceleration is definitely priced in to current 2024 estimates, so we may see 2024 estimates fall. There’s a lot more volatility baked into these models, and they’re quite hard to forecast.

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