Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Couple takeaways for me: 2024 is shaping up to be the “prototype to production” year for AI. On the former - we’ll see a lot of these experiments translate to production facing apps in 2024. Follow along to stay up to date!

AWS 299

AWS Cloud AI Search Cost optimization & reporting 299

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 2024 Guides - Are they Conservative? So far we’ve got a number of full year 2024 guides. They did call out a couple one time benefits they saw in 2023 they don’t expect to see in 2024. below consensus).

Cloud 167

Cloud Payment Features Subscription Revenue 167

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 13, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. So while it’s good to see broth expectations pick up for 2024, the current expectations would still be below the long term annual growth average. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 176

Cloud Artificial Intelligence Payment Features Subscription 176

Blulogix

DECEMBER 23, 2024

By Inga Broerman How Usage-Based Pricing is Transforming Subscription Billing The subscription economy is undergoing a transformation, driven by the rising popularity of usage-based pricing. The days of flat-rate subscriptions being the default option are gone. Your ERP cannot bill usage subscriptions.

Payment Features 52

Payment Features Subscription Pricing Artificial Intelligence 52

SaaStr

MARCH 6, 2024

So Okta is one of our favorite SaaS and Cloud leaders. Salesforce and Marc Benioff at first said the core market, security identity, was too small of a market. Much, Much, Much More Efficient Than 12-24 Months Ago The story of almost every Cloud leader. That’s 2024. #3. The story is super inspiring.

Fractional VPE 279

Fractional VPE Part-Time VPE Scale SMB 279

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Going in to this earnings season I expected a big driver of stock price performance to be how 2024 full year estimates change pre / post earnings. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 201

Cloud Pricing Startup Payment Features 201

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cloud 157

Cloud Trends Payment Features Subscription 157

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Wrapping all of this up, it appears that the market is either “pricing in” forward estimates coming up in 2024, or a big drop in rates (or both). Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 184

Cloud Payment Features Subscription Metrics 184

SaaStr

APRIL 17, 2024

But now a second SaaS security leader has filed to IPO, Rubrik. They’re still transitioning from onprem / appliciance model to cloud, which makes some of the metrics a touch confusing. Rubrik has gone aggressively more upmarket — from just 23 $100k customers in 2019 to 1,742 in 2024. #3. 500m+ ARR, with ~50% growth?

Scale 295

Scale Pricing Scaling Cloud 295

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. After the cloud giants reported this week, the timing of the presumed re-acceleration is very much in question. Quite different then the expectation for acceleration in software in 2024. Follow along to stay up to date! which feels unlikely.

Cost optimization & reporting 157

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 157

SaaStr

FEBRUARY 3, 2021

Okta is one of the more interesting Cloud and SaaS leaders, growing from its early roots as one of several Cloud identity vendors, to the break-out leader, to expanding its product profile to developers and customer identity, and more. It shows the size and scale of Cloud continues to just shock us. Well past $1B in ARR.

Outsourcing Services 284

Outsourcing Services Outsourced Development Cloud Scaling 284

SaaStr

MAY 22, 2024

OK Gartner is NOT a SaaS or Cloud company. And … 92% of its revenue is from subscriptions. But — it’s one that is very important to many of us that sell into the enterprise. Its research and reports in enterprise software are critical. That nets to about 104% “NRR” #5. It’s very profitable.

Revenue 291

Revenue Enterprise Cloud Pricing 291

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. As you can see, the market is predicting one more hike, and then a slow decrease throughout 2024. As you can see, Fed officials are saying the fed funds rate will be ~5% in 2024, and ~4% in 2025. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 157

Cloud Banking Payment Features Subscription 157

Blulogix

DECEMBER 16, 2024

Unlike traditional subscription-based models that offer predictable, fixed charges, consumption billing charges customers based on the actual use of services. In industries like cloud computing, telecommunications, and IT services, consumption billing has gained significant traction because it aligns the cost directly with service usage.

Payment Features 59

Payment Features Scale Telecommunications Forecasting 59

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 11, 2024

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. We then dipped below the trendline as we hit the period of “cloud optimizations,” and things have started to rebound. To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4. Let’s get into some high level data.

Cloud 184

Cloud Software Azure AWS 184

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. As you can see, on average full year 2024 consensus estimates are not going up after the Q4 calls. The second part is a nuanced point - the median cloud software stock is down 2% year-to-date. So the 2024 guides would be supportive of that.

Cloud 157

Cloud Metrics Payment Features Subscription 157

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 21, 2023

Q3 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Commentary from the cloud providers seems to be that the major macro headwinds around optimizations and new deal scrutiny have started to abate. To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4.

Cloud 184

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 184

Tom Tunguz

APRIL 1, 2024

y/y, estimated sales efficiency is 0.11, & contribution margins are negative : Rubrik sells $1 of subscription software for $0.88. It’s a strategic imperative to metamorphose from an on-premises perpetual-license company to a subscription-software company as fast as possible. But overall revenue is growing 4.5%

Data 219

Data Payment Features Subscription Cloud 219

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. Gartner estimates $5 trillion in tech spending in 2024, growing to $6.5 trillion by 2027.

Cloud 167

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Payment Features 167

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 3, 2024

Q2 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. I’ll get into more data later on - but forward estimates largely remained unchanged coming out of Q2 earnings (meaning full year 2024 estimates stayed the same pre / post earnings). To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4.

Cloud 167

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 167

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. ” From AWS (paraphrased): They said they expect the reaccleration they saw in Q4 to continue into 2024 2024 Estimate Updates One important metric I’m tracking this quarter is the change in 2024 estimates pre / post earnings.

Cloud 167

Cloud AWS Metrics Payment Features 167

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Andy Jassy doubled down on some of the commentary he’s made in the last few weeks about cloud optimization headwinds starting to abate. It appears 2024 will be more about building out new functionality vs “getting fit.”

Cloud 167

Cloud Software Review Headcount Trends 167

SaaStr

MAY 27, 2025

private equity buyout (Permira + CPPIB) Company needed to transform for the cloud era Classic “take private to modernize” playbook 2021: Second IPO on NYSE at $27.55/share The Strategic Acquirer Playbook Why did Salesforce pay $8B when they walked away in 2024? Classic buy-fix-sell. The biggest outcomes often take decades.

Acquisition 135

Acquisition Government AI Enterprise readiness 135

Blulogix

DECEMBER 31, 2024

By Inga Broerman Scaling with Usage-Based Models: A Practical Guide to Metering The rise of usage-based pricing is revolutionizing the subscription economy. Whether its cloud storage, software access, or other services, customers appreciate paying only for what they use.

Payment Features 52

Payment Features Scaling AI Search Subscription 52

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

Q2 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. As you can see from the data below most cloud businesses beat the consensus estimates for Q2 Source: company filings and Pitchbook consensus estimates Historically, the median beat of consensus estimates is closer to ~4%.

Cloud 176

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 176

Clouded Judgement

MAY 26, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. An element of re-acceleration is definitely priced in to current 2024 estimates, so we may see 2024 estimates fall. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 144

Cloud Azure Trends Forecasting 144

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Said another way, I believe that software valuations were holding up so well in the face of a ~5% 10Y because the market expected acceleration and 2024 numbers to come up. Follow along to stay up to date! Already we’ve seen huge earnings move.

Software Review 167

Software Review Cloud Software Azure 167

Clouded Judgement

MAY 10, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 167

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure 167

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. 2024 will be the year of AI applications! Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 190

Cloud Artificial Intelligence GCP(Google Cloud Platform) AI 190

Clouded Judgement

MAY 12, 2023

Earnings Update So far about half of the cloud software universe has reported Q1 earnings (43 companies in the universe I track). As I mentioned last week, the big question now is around 2024 numbers, and if those need to come down. The further that gets pushed out, the more likely it is that 2024 numbers will need to come down.

Cloud 130

Cloud Entrepreneurship Government Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

MAY 5, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. JFrog told us that “despite customers taking steps to be more efficient in their cloud consumption, we saw acceleration of cloud usage in both pay-as-you-go and annual SaaS customers.” 2024 numbers.

Cloud 130

Cloud Construction Trends Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 21, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Morgan Stanley released a report yesterday suggesting “cloud optimizations [were] an intensifying headwind in Q1.” ” They anticipate Q1 will be the peak pressure on cloud spend, and we may see a re-acceleration heading into 2024.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. If rates fall, and business fundamentals hold on (maybe even accelerate into 2024), then “overpaying” today (ie buying at elevated valuations) will be justified. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Software Review 190

Software Review Cloud Software Revenue 190

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Let’s put aside the short term, and think about what the drivers will be of software valuations over the next couple quarters into the first half of 2024. Are 2024 estimates too high? Follow along to stay up to date! Just right?

Software Review 130

Software Review Cloud Software AWS 130

SaaStr

AUGUST 21, 2024

So we’re scaling up the final speakers for 2024 SaaStr Annual, Sep 10-12 in SF Bay! We’re also starting to roll out sign up for 100s and 100s Braindates and Mentorship Sessions now, look for an email in your inbox soon if you are signed up for Annual! We’ll post the top ones soon! May Habib, CEO and Co-Founder @ Writer.ai

CTO 282

CTO Scale Travel AI 282

User Pilot

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

What are the best Salesforce integrations in 2024? The Stripe<>Salesforce integration synchronizes payment data between Stripe and Salesforce, allowing for the management of subscriptions, invoices, and payment analytics directly within Salesforce. View invoices and subscriptions from Salesforce.

Payments 105

Payments Payment Services Payment Methods Payment Solutions 105

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. A 2023 recession feels less likely, with 2024 being the more realistic timing if we do in fact get to a deeper recession. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Generative AI 130