Kellblog

MARCH 29, 2023

Just a quick post to share the slides from the presentation I gave today at the KiwiSaaS conference to discuss the SaaS metrics that matter in 2023 and 2024. Note that I also did a Balderton webinar ( Balancing Growth and Burn in 2023 ) on this topic with David Thevenon.

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Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

The full year guide assumes 14% growth for this upcoming year after they grew 31% in 2023. They did call out a couple one time benefits they saw in 2023 they don’t expect to see in 2024. The other one time benefit from 2023 was ~$40m of multi-year license deals. A year ago, they guided 2023 growth to 16%.

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Cloud Revenue Payment Features Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Below you can see the top performers from 2023. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

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Cloud Software Review Payment Features Subscription 189

Chart Mogul

DECEMBER 20, 2023

In January, venture capitalist Fred Wilson wrote “Surviving is thriving in 2023” and I think he couldn’t have been more right. Sure, there are a lot of CRMs on the market, but our unique ability to combine subscription data with sales opportunities and customer communication all in one place has proven powerful.

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Scale Payment Features Subscription Benchmarks 52

SaaStr

DECEMBER 21, 2022

No Downturn in 2022, and None Predicted for Now in 2023. Adobe was very bullish for 2023. Decades later, going into 2023, it’s the fastest growing division at Adobe, growing 24% currency adjusted at $2.4B And it proves just how long a life so many B2B products have — especially if you keep investing in them. #5.

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Scale Cloud Payment Features Subscription 255

Subscription Flow

DECEMBER 15, 2023

The essence of the Subscription Economy lies in its ability to forge lasting relationships between businesses and consumers, transcending traditional transactional models. For instance, subscription businesses observe customer retention rates, customer acquisition, and whatnot.

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Payment Features Subscription Healthcare Technical Review 59

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 10, 2023

Growth Deceleration of Consumption Companies So far, 2023 guides have not been pretty for consumption software companies. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

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Cloud Trends Payment Features Subscription 244

Blulogix

NOVEMBER 8, 2023

Accelerating Subscription Business Growth with Usage-Based Pricing By BluLogix Team The subscription business model has long been recognized as a steady path to recurring revenue and business growth. The Evolution of Pricing Traditionally, subscription businesses offered fixed-rate plans.

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Payment Features Subscription Pricing Business 52

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. There have been many companies who’ve seen their quarterly net new ARR decrease each quarter through 2023. The Gen AI investments are coming.

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Clouded Judgement

MARCH 1, 2024

” I heard that a lot in 2021, and unfortunately not many call options hit… It’s hard to invest at 100x ARR and exit at 10x and make a return VCs aim for. Funds have gotten quite large and haven’t deployed much in 2022 / 2023. Altimeter is an investment adviser registered with the U.S.

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Cloud AI Investment Metrics 311

Blulogix

NOVEMBER 8, 2023

The Top 10 Pain-Points for Usage-Based Subscription Billing Services and How to Fix Them By BluLogix Team In today’s business landscape, consumption-based subscriptions are all the rage, and for good reason. Who wouldn’t want a piece of that recurring revenue pie, increased profitability, and happy customers?

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Payment Features Subscription compliance Pricing 52

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

” Were 2023 Software Estimates Already De-Risked To Start The Year? We’ve seen a number of companies report Q4 ‘22, and then guide for the full year 2023 (first look at 2023 guides, or the companies view on how the year will turn out). They guided 2023 1% above consensus. The primary reason (I think)?

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Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 268

Blulogix

OCTOBER 11, 2023

A collection of recorded webinars and videos on Software-as-a-Service and Subscription Management Webinars & Videos 1. Automated ETL (Extract, Transform, Load): Invest in ETL tools and processes to automate the transformation of data. Ensure that invoices are clear and easy for customers to understand.

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Payment Features SaaS AI Search Subscription 52

ChurnZero

JUNE 14, 2023

How should I wrangle a constricted company budget to outlast 2023? For subscription businesses, the focus is clear: retaining customers. Don’t let your customer success team go into 2023 with substandard tools. Invest in a long-term competitive advantage. This article was originally published in Forbes.

Scale 52

Scale Customer Success Technical Review Sales Hiring 52

SaaStr

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

As a reminder, I calculate ARR as quarterly subscription rev x 4. pic.twitter.com/6H4Knebr0A — Jamin Ball (@jaminball) August 31, 2023 5 Interesting Learnings: #1. So likely Wall Street is partially punishing them for continuing to invest heavily in growth. But we do seem to be past the lows. Quarterly net new ARR trends.

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Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

There are certainly some deals that happened in 2023 that haven’t announced yet (there’s always a lag), so I’d expect the 2023 bar to be slightly higher once everything has announced. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

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Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Metrics 284

SaaSHolic

MAY 15, 2023

The next frontier: cross border financing Roberto Lee, Founder & CEO (Avenue); Anderson Thees, Managing Partner (Cubo Capital); Joao Del Valle, Co-Founder & CEO (EBanx) The session starts discussing the investment service company and its various types of investments in equities, bonds, and crypto.

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Payment Methods Blockchain Artificial Intelligence Payment Services 52

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

If we look at where estimates were in the fall (for year end 2024), vs where they were at the end of 2023, the median company saw their 2024 consensus estimate fall 1%. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

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Cloud Trends Payment Features Subscription 152

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 24, 2023

The end result was the expected result prior to the banking crisis - a 25bps hike 2023 Full Year Guides We’re nearly through Q4 ‘22 earnings season. The chart below shows 2023 guides vs 2023 consensus estimates to star the year. The chart below shows 2023 guides vs 2023 consensus estimates to star the year.

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Cloud Banking Payment Features Subscription 130

Blulogix

NOVEMBER 8, 2023

Traditional pricing models, such as fixed subscriptions and one-time purchases, no longer align with the dynamic and ever-evolving nature of this sector. Subscription Billing The Evolution of Pricing Models in the Technology Industry The technology industry has undergone significant transformations in recent years.

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Technology Pricing Payment Features Subscription 52

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 13, 2023

growth in 2023. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA. Altimeter is an investment adviser registered with the U.S.

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Cloud Artificial Intelligence Payment Features Subscription 169

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 13, 2023

That was more broadly a period of ZIRP, and it’s interesting that today the 10Y isn’t hugely different from where it was in the period of 2010 - 2020 Morgan Stanley CIO Survey Everyone is eagerly awaiting 2023 forecasts to be “de-risked.” growth in 2023 (so not much change in 1 quarter).

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Cloud Forecasting Payment Features Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

The expected budget growth for 2023 currently sits at 2.8%. So clearly the early expectations for growth in 2023 are coming in low. Within the broader IT budgets, software did have the highest growth expectations for 2023 at 3.1%. at the far right is the initial expectation for 2023 budget growth. The purple dot at 2.8%

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Cloud Payment Features Subscription Trends 130

Clouded Judgement

MAY 12, 2023

On a related note - when we look at companies who gave full year 2023 guidance this quarter vs last quarter, on average those companies are not changing their guidance at all (median change in guide is 0%). There are some outliers, but for the universe who’ve reported so far the takeaway is 2023 guides were de-risked.

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Cloud Government Entrepreneurship Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The below charts show the distribution of projections for GDP growth in 2023, 2024, 2025. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

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Cloud Banking Payment Features Subscription 152

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 23, 2022

As I’ve said many times before, in 2023 the focus for software valuations will completely shift from interest rates (and multiples) to fundamentals. 2023 consensus estimates starting to come down. Wrapping this all up, we’re now starting to see 2023 estimates revised down. Q3 was a tough quarter.

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Cloud Sales Hiring Trends Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 27, 2023

Early Look at 2023 Guides Given the Azure weakness reported on Tuesday, all software tumbled Wednesday morning with most names down 5-10%. A big reason for that was the guides for the full year 2023 we saw. We’ll get a lot more data points in the coming weeks on how other companies guide for 2023.

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Cloud Azure Pricing Payment Features 141

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 20, 2023

In it he said “we’re very optimistic about 2023…not a chance for an IT recession in 2023…we’re hiring (when asked about a company like Salesforce who just announced a reduction in force).” ” Overall, he painted a different picture about 2023 than the consensus narrative.

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Cloud Interviewing Payment Features Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2023

We’re undoubtedly set up for a very interesting 2023. To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4. Not every company reports subscription revenue, so they’ve been left out of the analysis (or I’ve estimated their % subscription revenue).

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Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

The graph below shows the difference between 2024 consensus growth rates and 2023 consensus growth rates (so 2024 growth minus 2023 growth). Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Securities and Exchange Commission.

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Software Review Cloud Software AWS 130

User Pilot

JULY 27, 2023

A positive NPV indicates that the project is expected to generate more financial value than the initial investment. It considers subscription fees, additional purchases, upgrades, and renewals. Monthly Recurring Revenue : This metric measures the predictable revenue your company generates monthly from paying users.

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Sales Hiring SaaS Payments Sales Recruiting CTO Hire 98

Buffer Resources

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

X Premium is a premium, opt-in, paid subscription service designed to enhance user experience on the platform. Look for the 'X Premium' or 'Subscription' option in your account settings or profile menu. My goal was to assess the paid tier’s value and whether you should take the $8 (or $16) leap.

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Social Media Payment Features Subscription Engagement 117

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 3, 2023

3 months ago they guided to 47% growth for 2023. The red dot is what they’re guided to for the full year 2023 growth (which means the quarterly YoY growth in Q4 ‘23 would be lower than the red dot which is at 24% ). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

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Cloud Forecasting Payment Features Subscription 141

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Summers","date":"Sun Feb 12 21:48:44 +0000 2023","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":26,"like_count":158,"expanded_url":{"url":"[link] Sees ‘Turbulent’ Time","description":"Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence H.

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Cloud Azure Revenue Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 30, 2022

2023 will be the year we truly learn who the best businesses are. I think this continues in 2023. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). And with that, I think we see a lot more dispersion in software multiples.

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Cloud Payment Features Subscription Pricing 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

This article was a great quick read on a few other factors Larry Summers sees which brings him to a similar conclusion that current data looks good, but leading indicators are more troubling Update on 2023 Guides Updating a chart I’ve shared previously (2023 guides vs consensus at the start of the year).

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Cloud Payment Features Subscription Revenue 130

Stax

DECEMBER 6, 2023

Now ubiquitous, credit cards provide consumers with a quick and secure payment method, often with rewards and other perks. Each time a customer pays with a credit card, the merchant pays fees to the credit card company and the payment processor, which can cut into their profit margins. Learn More What is Credit Card Surcharging?

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Merchant Services Payment Services Payment Methods Payment Solutions 88