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A Look Back at Q1 '25 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Q1 ‘25 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. And no, this wasn’t all because of leap year last year (that would only account for a ~3% delta at most) The Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) also declined net new adds year over year, but not by as much. Let’s get into some high level data.

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Clouded Judgement - 3.28.25 - The New AI Risk Curve

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Let’s rewind the clock back to the pre-cloud days. Fast forward to the launch of AWS and the public cloud. There was an exponential drop off in costs / complexity to start a company going from on prem to cloud.

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Palantir’s +79% vs Bill’s -43%: The AI Divide That Defined SaaS Performance in 1H’25

SaaStr

Their database and cloud services became indispensable for companies building AI applications. ☁️ Cloud Migration Momentum : Oracle’s aggressive cloud transformation finally gained enterprise traction, with customers migrating mission-critical workloads that competitors couldn’t easily displace.

AI
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10 Things Startups Get Wrong Selling to Developers and Engineers (from the CRO Who Scaled Databricks from

SaaStr

Databricks used consumption-based pricing because that’s what AWS, Google, and Microsoft used—it made sense to customers who were already buying cloud services that way. Ron’s Regret : “If I had to give myself advice, it would have been invest even more early. I think we could have grown even faster.”

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Loveable and Replit Both Hit $100M ARR in Record Time. The Vibe Coding TAM: How Big Can This Market Really Get?

SaaStr

Competitive Response from Incumbents Potential Disruptors : Microsoft integrating vibe coding into Power Platform/Office suite Google developing natural language interface for Google Cloud Amazon building vibe coding capabilities into AWS Adobe creating AI-native design-to-code workflows Risk Assessment : High impact, high probability.

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Clouded Judgement 7.18.25 - The Return of the Point Solution

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The APM space was much larger, more established, and cloud infrastructure monitoring was more niche (where Datadog played). There are so many similar stories coming out of AWS ReInvent every year. Follow along to stay up to date!

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NVIDIA Hits $4 Trillion: What Founders Can Learn from the Greatest Growth Story Ever Told

SaaStr

over 26 years Historic Achievement: First company EVER to hit $4 trillion To put this in perspective: if you invested $1,000 in NVIDIA at IPO, you’d have nearly $7 million today. That’s not just generational wealth—that’s build-your-own-space-program wealth.