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Clouded Judgement 3.22.24 - ERR vs ARR and the Conundrum of AI Revenue Streams Today

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) vs ERR (Experimental Runrate Revenue) ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is one of the most popular SaaS (Non-GAAP) metrics. For SaaS businesses that target smaller SMB customer segments, gross retention is typically in the mid to low 80’s with net expansion in the ~105% range.

AI 183
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5 Interesting Learnings from DigitalOcean at $500,000,000 in ARR

SaaStr

Focusing on smaller developers, in some ways it’s been a bit overshadowed by AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud. DigitalOcean is growing an impressive 37% at $500,000,000 in ARR, and staying very SMB with 600,000+ customers, but still driving deal sizes up a bit. They are only 15% of the customers, but 83% of the revenue.

Azure 219
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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. If we break this down and look at Azure and AWS independently (graphs below), you’ll see how the AWS “swings” were a lot more volatile.

Cloud 177
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5 Interesting Learnings from Xero. As It Crosses $650m in ARR.

SaaStr

What lessons can we learn from this huge Kiwi SMB success, for other founders? Here are a few: All the way until $600m+ ARR, the majority of Xero’s new bookings and revenue still came from Australia and New Zealand! Most of the companies in this 5 Interesting Things Series have had net negative churn from SMBs (e.g.,

SMB 216
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Clouded Judgement 6.9.23 - Recap of Consumption Trends in Q1 '23

Clouded Judgement

Expansion revenue is still declining (we see this in falling net retention rates), but gross retention remains strong. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. New customer growth seems to be picking up.

Trends 130
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Gartner: SaaS Spending Will Grow Another 40% in Next 2 Years Alone

SaaStr

Ok, it’s quite possible Gartner is way underestimating SMB spend here, the total spend on SaaS is likely $200B or more. In my 148 public SaaS companies (including most of the categories of this list but not AWS, Azure, GCP) the aggregate revenue is $185B. Go grab your piece. This is your time, folks. Go make it happen.

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Snowflake, CrowdStike and SumoLogic: “How to Leverage the Cloud Giants to Scale to 100 Million ARR and Beyond”

SaaStr

And it’s one of the three large cloud vendors that we all know: Microsoft, AWS, and Google. AWS’s marketplace has seen 1.5 But also it’s allowed us to get much closer to our provider, I mean, we host and run 100% on AWS, but pull data from everywhere. It was pretty easy to drive that from our side.

Scale 203