Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Software Setup Currently, interest rates seem to be the primary driver of software valuations. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Software Review 130

Software Review Cloud Software AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Some of these drops rival one of the worst ever software earnings reaction of Tableau in 2016! On Thursday the software index (WCLD) was up ~3%! So what’s holding up software stocks valuations?? Atlassian was down ~10%.

Software Review 161

Software Review Cloud Software Azure 161

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 15, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 16, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Growth Adjusted Software Multiples The last 6 weeks (since the start of May) has been quite the run for software companies. I’m using the period of 2010+ given that’s really when cloud software came about.

Cloud 130

Cloud Software Revenue Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The right way to view Rubrik is really more of a high growth software business growing >40%. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date! NTM revenue multiple.

Cloud 141

Cloud Scale Subscription Payment Features 141

SaaStr

SEPTEMBER 14, 2020

In case u missed @SaaStrAnnual State of the Cloud w @bdeeter @TheValuesVC. ??Future Cloud proliferating globally ??B2B This will usher in unlimited potential for new innovation and growth in SaaS and Cloud. # 2 Cloud is Eating Software. The astonishing fact is: cloud is eating software.

Technical Review 292

Technical Review Cloud Software Review Technology 292

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. I pulled some data from Pitchbook that you can see below (screen was for US based companies that they categorize as “software”). Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 284

Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Metrics 284

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. I believe one of the bigger reasons software has held up despite the run up in the 10Y to 5% is the expectation for re-acceleration (ie numbers / forecasts going up). Quite different then the expectation for acceleration in software in 2024.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Revisiting the “Is Software Expensive” Question The current median revenue multiple for the software universe is 6.4x, which is ~17% below the long term average multiple of 7.8x.

Cloud 177

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. What’s maybe most interesting about the rise in the 10Y is the relatively little impact it’s had on software valuations. The average YTD performance of my index of ~80 software companies is only down 5%.

Cloud 141

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 141

Clouded Judgement

JULY 21, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Are Software Companies Bad Businesses? There was some talk last week on the All-In podcast about software companies. The gold standard for all public software companies is GAAP net income in the fullness of time.

Cloud 130

Cloud Software Sales Hiring Scale 130

Tom Tunguz

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Yesterday, both Google and Microsoft announced their earnings for their cloud businesses. ” Both Google & Microsoft have announced Copilot for security products, features that other security vendors including Cisco are developing, uggesting this may be the next vertical to grow from AI after content generation & legal software.

AI Search 309

AI Search AI Cloud Azure 309

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 10Y Rising The start of the year has not been kind to software stocks! In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 152

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 152

SaaStr

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

And yes, I know we can argue Databricks is neither really Cloud nor really SaaS. I’d argue that doesn’t much matter — its comparables are the Cloud and SaaS leaders). Canva image from here ) The post Canva and Databricks: The Two Big Potential SaaS / Cloud IPOs of 2024 appeared first on SaaStr.

Cloud 275

Cloud SaaS Enterprise Branding 275

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Either way - they ended up performing much better than their initial guide, and ultimately their stock was one of the top preforming software companies in 2023 (they were up >100%). Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 161

Cloud Revenue Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 189

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 189

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Growth Deceleration of Consumption Companies So far, 2023 guides have not been pretty for consumption software companies. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 244

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 244

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The second part is a nuanced point - the median cloud software stock is down 2% year-to-date. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date! So the 2024 guides would be supportive of that.

Cloud 152

Cloud Metrics Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Is this a sign that software headwinds have bottomed? Amazon and Snowflake have both made comments recently that Cloud Optimizations are starting to play second fiddle to net new workload growth. Follow along to stay up to date!

AWS 293

AWS Cloud AI Search Cost optimization & reporting 293

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 20, 2023

Q1 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. The question on everyone’s mind - when will we see software re-accelerate? The real headwinds to software (tougher expansion, longer sales cycles / procurement, slower new business, budget crunches / RIFs, etc) started last August.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Benchmarks Scale 161

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

Q2 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. As you can see from the data below most cloud businesses beat the consensus estimates for Q2 Source: company filings and Pitchbook consensus estimates Historically, the median beat of consensus estimates is closer to ~4%.

Cloud 169

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 169

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. After a few software companies have reported we can start to look at the data behind “are numbers going up.” Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 195

Cloud Pricing Startup Revenue 195

Tom Tunguz

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

I’m watching public company earnings to identify early weaknesses in the software market. Google: [We] are pushing Google Cloud to Profitability. One surprising nuance from the Google call: Revenue growth in GCP was again greater than Google Cloud, reflecting strength in both infrastructure and platform services.

GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 305

GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Cloud AWS Sales Hiring 305

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. ” Were 2023 Software Estimates Already De-Risked To Start The Year? Another topic I’ve discussed at length here is the question of “are forward estimates too high” for software companies. Hard Landing?

Cloud 268

Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 268

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2023

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Less than half of the software universe is guiding above consensus, and the median guide has gone from ~2.5% As you can see from the data below most cloud businesses beat the consensus estimates for Q4. Some software companies also have seasonality in the “payback.”

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 161

SaaStr

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

Discover Bessemer Venture Partners’s annual State of the Cloud report, going through trends, benchmarks, and metrics that underpin the Cloud economy. The past twelve months have been relatively turbulent for Cloud founders. What does this mean for Cloud companies? What does this mean for Cloud companies?

Cloud 236

Cloud Payments Software Review Payment Solutions 236

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 14, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Net New ARR Slowdown It’s no secret that cloud software businesses have seen headwinds over the last couple quarters. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date! Their takeaway?

Cloud 169

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 169

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Q3 ‘23 Earnings Summary Preview The vast majority of all software companies have now reported Q3. Let’s see if this trend continues in Q4, but I think we’re starting to get to the end of the software recession.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Headcount Trends 161

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 4, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Update “What we're seeing in the quarter is that those cost optimizations, while still going on, are moderating and many maybe behind us in some of our large customers. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Cost optimization & reporting AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

MAY 19, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Reflections on Software Performance in Q1 Software stocks have enjoyed quite the run this year. Medium and high growth software companies have seen a median stock price performance this year of 21% and 26% respectively.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Retention 161

Tom Tunguz

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

My laptop is faster than your cloud. Instead of requiring a scale-out database in the sky, most analyses are faster with an optimized database on your computer that can leverage the cloud when needed. Third, DuckDB can be embedded in software. But most workloads aren’t massive. Second, DuckDB is fast.

Cloud 349

Cloud AWS Data Analysis Benchmarks 349

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 161

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now January Green Shoots A couple key software players have given us commentary in their Q4 earnings report (quarter ending December) that January (the first month of Q1) saw some green-shoots. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud AWS Metrics Subscription 161

SaaStr

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

If you’re selling software to SMB merchants and outside of tech like Shopify and Toast and Monday , things are pretty, pretty good, if in some ways still harder than before. If you’re selling sales and marketing software, like Zoominfo, it can seem a lot tougher than 12-18 months ago. With some big caveats.

Merchant Services 257

Merchant Services Azure Software AWS 257

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Azure AWS Software Review 161

SaaStr

MAY 16, 2022

But at end of the day, in Cloud, the question is if CIO and related spend will slow down. So follow AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. So there’s much angst and even panic with so many SaaS and Cloud public stocks down 50% or more from their peaks. They are the Cloud. The post Cloud Stocks May Be Down.

Cloud 239

Cloud Azure AWS Engineering 239

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 161

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Subscription 161