Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 21, 2023

My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g., net retention and CAC payback). My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 177

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 19, 2024

NTM revenue multiple. Their GAAP revenue grew 5% in 2023, and 29% in Q4 ‘23 YoY. Their GAAP revenue grew 5% in 2023, and 29% in Q4 ‘23 YoY. For context, full year GAAP revenue in 2023 was $628m. NTM revenue multiple for a business growing >40% (at significant scale) that is operating at roughly breakeven.

Cloud 141

Cloud Scale Subscription Payment Features 141

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now Amazon ReInvent This week Amazon had their annual AWS ReInvent conference. Couple takeaways for me: 2024 is shaping up to be the “prototype to production” year for AI. Time will tell if they can execute!

AWS 293

AWS Cloud AI Search Cost optimization & reporting 293

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g., net retention and CAC payback). My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

Cloud 169

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 169

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2024

On top of that, the median NTM revenue multiple has only fell 1% from the start of the year to today. Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 141

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 141

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 18, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now Q2 Earnings Check In We’re now about halfway through Q2 earnings season (companies with June quarter ends have reported, and we’ll get companies with July quarter ends reporting next week). in early May.

Cloud 243

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 243

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

I’ve put together a number of charts below to show how metrics from this quarter compared to prior quarters. It should be pretty clear from the chart how difficult Q1 was. Partly due to larger layoffs, as well as stronger bookings And finally - net retention. Not surprising, net retention continued to fall.

Cloud 169

Cloud Software Review AWS Trends 169

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

And below are the top performers from 2022 and 2021 Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples This year, only 1 company had a top 10 multiple for every day of the year - Snowflake. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years.

Cloud 189

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 189

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 8, 2023

” Here’s a summary of the quarter in 5 charts: Quarterly Growth rates: Still decelerating, but not as quickly Net Retention: Down from historical averages, but starting to level off. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Headcount Trends 161

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

There’s been a lot of dislocation in the world, and after going through the last few years I can see how companies would want to “set a low bar” for the full year. They don’t expect that aggregate $80m of revenue from 2023 to repeat in 2024. Follow along to stay up to date! below consensus).

Cloud 161

Cloud Revenue Subscription Payment Features 161

Stax

FEBRUARY 21, 2024

So, of course when it came to revenue-driving activities, Ford knew that success in marketing—and business—wasn’t about how much your marketing spend is, but how efficiently you spend it. For modern Software as a Service (SaaS) companies, the automobile is replaced by primarily digital and cloud-based solutions and software.

SaaS Payments 88

SaaS Payments Payments Payment Services Stax 88

User Pilot

MAY 2, 2024

Customer retention is vital for product success and business profitability. You will also learn how to build a retention strategy, what metrics to track, and 10 bulletproof retention tactics for SaaS companies. TL;DR Customer retention is the ability to keep your customers actively using their products.

Retention 75

Retention Metrics Strategy Scale 75

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Subscribe now Revisiting the “Is Software Expensive” Question The current median revenue multiple for the software universe is 6.4x, which is ~17% below the long term average multiple of 7.8x. So on a pure revenue multiple basis the software universe looks “slightly cheap.” Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 177

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

Going in to this earnings season I expected a big driver of stock price performance to be how 2024 full year estimates change pre / post earnings. The chart below shows how companies’ 2024 guidance compares to consensus estimates prior to the earnings call. Follow along to stay up to date! Confluent guided 1.4% Palantir 0.3%.

Cloud 195

Cloud Pricing Startup Revenue 195

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 161

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 19, 2024

” If we look historically at the period from 2015-2020 (ignoring 2021 IPOs) the rough medians were ~$200m ARR (minimum was $100m ARR), 50% YoY growth, and >120% net retention. .” Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 177

Cloud Scale Compensation Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 10, 2023

Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

Cloud 244

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 244

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

Cloud 161

Cloud AWS Metrics Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2023

My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g., net retention and CAC payback). My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

They also are seeing AI revenue (largely compute) show up sooner than anyone else. Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q4 ‘23 Two quotes from the Amazon and Microsoft earnings call really stood out to me this week.

Cost optimization & reporting 161

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 15, 2023

Then we had the FOMC meeting where we got increased commentary on how the Fed is thinking. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now Macro Update the 10Y rate dropped to 3.9%

Cloud 183

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 183

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 20, 2023

My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g., net retention and CAC payback). My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Benchmarks Scale 161

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

The big cash piles raised in 2021 are starting to get smaller, and we dug in on how investors and founders should be thinking about the world. Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! You can find the recording here. This all shifted in 2021.

Cloud 284

Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Metrics 284

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

And when I say more / less important what I really mean is how important is it to the public market valuations at that point in time. Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Or 10% growth rate and 30% FCF margin. So the 2024 guides would be supportive of that.

Cloud 152

Cloud Metrics Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Net new ARR is simply the change in ARR from one quarter to the next.

Cloud 161

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

MAY 19, 2023

As I’ve mentioned before, calculating net new ARR added in a quarter for public companies is a bit of a swag since not all companies report ARR. As I’ve mentioned before, calculating net new ARR added in a quarter for public companies is a bit of a swag since not all companies report ARR. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Retention 161

User Pilot

MARCH 25, 2024

Whether you’re planning your exit, seeking VC funding, or setting up ESOPs, a SaaS valuation is a must. Our article: Explains different SaaS valuation methods. Shows how to leverage PLG strategies to boost the value of your SaaS business. It uses revenue and operating costs to determine the company’s value.

SaaS 92

SaaS Customer Lifetime Value Acquisition Metrics 92

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

The chart below shows how the consensus around the fed funds rate has shifted over the last few months. Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 152

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 152

SaaStr

FEBRUARY 14, 2023

The current public market environment might look like a great SaaS crash for many people. As things appear to slow, how do we get back to the fundamentals, find the things that are great about SaaS that are measurable, and help people see the value in your business? In reality, it’s not a crash.

Metrics 214

Metrics Marketing SaaS SMB 214

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 13, 2023

The chart below shows the evolution of this Up-To-Down quarterly ratio for the last few years Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 169

Cloud Artificial Intelligence Subscription Payment Features 169

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 5, 2024

A favorite clip of mine is when Russ Hanneman is talking about how pre-revenue businesses are the best kind of businesses. Here’s part of his quote: “If you show revenue people will ask how much and it will never be enough…If you have no revenue you can say you’re pre revenue.

Cloud 161

Cloud Scale Pricing Revenue 161

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Office 365 Copilot, for example, doesn’t go live until November and we most likely won’t see meaningful revenue from it until next year. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Azure AWS Software Review 161

SaaStr

AUGUST 7, 2023

Learn about the most important SaaS metrics for founders in 2023 with the CEOs of the most metric-oriented company, monday.com, and the founder of SaaStr. For a quick recap on SaaS metrics: What is ARR in SaaS? ARR stands for Annualized Recurring Revenue, although its real-world definition has evolved over time.

Metrics 196

Metrics SaaS Sales Hiring Finance 196

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 23, 2023

I posted a longer recap that you can find here , but wanted to highlight a few trends around growth, net retention, sales efficiency and FCF margins. Moving to net retention. As you can see, net retention also started to fall this quarter. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

Trends 130

Trends Cloud Retention Subscription 130

User Pilot

FEBRUARY 26, 2024

Digital product metrics reveal how customers interact with your product. Digital product metrics can be grouped into five broad categories: acquisition , activation , engagement , satisfaction , and revenue metrics. They are a measure of the performance and health of your SaaS product. However, not all metrics are created equal.

Metrics 87

Metrics Customer Lifetime Value Scale SaaS 87

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 17, 2023

MoM The chart below shows how each individual component of inflation (CPI) changed YoY (with yellow bar being the overall inflation figure) So what happened to rates? .” MoM The chart below shows how each individual component of inflation (CPI) changed YoY (with yellow bar being the overall inflation figure) So what happened to rates?

Cloud 152

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 152

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 20, 2022

My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g., net retention and CAC payback). My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

Cloud 130

Cloud Software Review Software Benchmarks 130