Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q4 ‘23 Two quotes from the Amazon and Microsoft earnings call really stood out to me this week. Sometimes they’re classic cloud migrations. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

Cost optimization & reporting 161

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 161

Clouded Judgement

MAY 3, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Results Q1 earnings seasons has officially kicked off! Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 5.8x

Cost optimization & reporting 183

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Software Azure 183

Clouded Judgement

MAY 10, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. And no one raised full year guide >2% The median “beat” (Q1 revenue over Q1 consensus estimates) was 1.5%, which is the lowest it’s been in the last 4 years Overall, it’s been a TOUGH quarter for software companies.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Azure Report - Cloud Infra Looks Good! Azure doesn’t disclose exact Azure quarterly revenue (they disclose growth rate in absolute terms and in constant currency), but there are good estimations.

Azure 177

Azure Cloud Software AI 177

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 15, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 6.2x

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The ZIRP period created a lot of confusion given software buying was happening at a break neck pace - and it was easy to think you had differentiated product market fit because your business momentum (ie revenue) suggested you did.

Cloud 284

Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Metrics 284

Tom Tunguz

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

So far in the first month of the year, AWS year-over-year revenue growth is in the mid-teens. The collection of these three earnings calls presages continued reduction in growth rates, likely through the end of the year, as most businesses favor profits over growth - a trend echoing across Startupland. Amazon: Net sales increased $21.4

GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 288

GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Cloud AWS Sales Hiring 288

SaaStr

DECEMBER 14, 2023

In the latest installment of SaaStr’s What’s New series – where we sit down with the leaders in SaaS and Cloud for the inside scoop on what’s top of mind and what’s new, SaaStr CEO and Jason Lemkin chats with the CMO of Google Cloud, Alison Wagonfeld. They also compete with Microsoft in a big way.

Cloud 232

Cloud Scale AWS AI 232

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. NTM revenue multiple. Their GAAP revenue grew 5% in 2023, and 29% in Q4 ‘23 YoY. Their GAAP revenue grew 5% in 2023, and 29% in Q4 ‘23 YoY. For context, full year GAAP revenue in 2023 was $628m. Top 5 Median: 16.3x

Cloud 141

Cloud Scale Subscription Payment Features 141

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Revisiting the “Is Software Expensive” Question The current median revenue multiple for the software universe is 6.4x, which is ~17% below the long term average multiple of 7.8x. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 177

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. After the cloud giants reported this week, the timing of the presumed re-acceleration is very much in question. At the same time - Google Cloud also massively decelerated from 28% last quarter to 22% this quarter. which feels unlikely.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. They may be more cyclical than originally anticipated, but they’re still great businesses that will rebound faster when the cycle turns. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 244

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 244

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Amazon and Snowflake have both made comments recently that Cloud Optimizations are starting to play second fiddle to net new workload growth. We’re still in the early days of the cloud.” Follow along to stay up to date!

AWS 293

AWS Cloud AI Search Cost optimization & reporting 293

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! ” Should be an exciting earning season!

Cloud 152

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 189

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 189

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. They don’t expect that aggregate $80m of revenue from 2023 to repeat in 2024. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now 2024 Guides - Are they Conservative? below consensus).

Cloud 161

Cloud Revenue Subscription Payment Features 161

Tom Tunguz

SEPTEMBER 16, 2023

Snowflake’s cloud analytics database thrives on structured data. Databricks’ technology rips through unstructured data in a cloud data lake house. Choosing Snowflake’s closest historical quarter by revenue provides a side-by-side comparison of their financial profiles. The Fed Funds rate in 22 was at 0.33%.

Business 294

Business Cloud Finance AI 294

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. But should these businesses trade at the same multiple? The second part is a nuanced point - the median cloud software stock is down 2% year-to-date. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Top 5 Median: 19.6x

Cloud 152

Cloud Metrics Revenue Subscription 152

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. On top of that, the median NTM revenue multiple has only fell 1% from the start of the year to today. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! vs expectations of +3.4% (and +3.2%

Cloud 141

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 141

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 6.3x

Cloud 195

Cloud Pricing Startup Revenue 195

SaaStr

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

Discover Bessemer Venture Partners’s annual State of the Cloud report, going through trends, benchmarks, and metrics that underpin the Cloud economy. The past twelve months have been relatively turbulent for Cloud founders. What does this mean for Cloud companies? What does this mean for Cloud companies?

Cloud 239

Cloud Payments Software Review Payment Solutions 239

Clouded Judgement

JULY 21, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Are Software Companies Bad Businesses? Specifically Chamath said this: “From an OpEx perspective these businesses just suck. Said another way, the revenue they bring in is less than the salary they’re paid.

Cloud 130

Cloud Software Sales Hiring Scale 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 14, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Net New ARR Slowdown It’s no secret that cloud software businesses have seen headwinds over the last couple quarters. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! Their takeaway?

Cloud 169

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 169

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 11, 2024

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g., We then dipped below the trendline as we hit the period of “cloud optimizations,” and things have started to rebound.

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Azure AWS 177

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Hard Landing? Soft Landing? No Landing?

Cloud 268

Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 268

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 4, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Update “What we're seeing in the quarter is that those cost optimizations, while still going on, are moderating and many maybe behind us in some of our large customers. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Cost optimization & reporting AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 161

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Azure AWS Software Review 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Andy Jassy doubled down on some of the commentary he’s made in the last few weeks about cloud optimization headwinds starting to abate. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Headcount Trends 161

Clouded Judgement

MAY 19, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. For those who don’t, I’m using quarterly subscription revenue x4 to estimate ARR. This tells me new bookings still present a headwind (and we’re not seeing improvements yet) Second - Quarterly revenue growth.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 161

Cloud AWS Metrics Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 15, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 6.3x

Cloud 183

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 183

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 18, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Even through rates would be cut (tailwind for valuations), the headwinds to business performance from a recession would overwhelm the rate tailwind. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 243

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 243

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. And the challenge today is there are some very impressive public businesses who make that opportunity cost question tricky. And many companies may say an IPO is not the ultimate liquidity path for our business. Top 5 Median: 16.8x

Cloud 177

Cloud Scale Compensation Metrics 177

Tom Tunguz

OCTOBER 27, 2022

Google Cloud Platform. Infrastructure revenue growth averaged 33% this quarter, which is astounding considering we’re talking about businesses that sum to more than $50b of revenue per quarter. At a 7x multiple of revenue, that is another $84b of market cap creation, in theory. Microsoft Azure.

Cloud 228

Cloud GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure AWS 228

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 13, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! consensus and +3.7% consensus and +4.3%

Cloud 169

Cloud Artificial Intelligence Subscription Payment Features 169