Clouded Judgement

MARCH 22, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) vs ERR (Experimental Runrate Revenue) ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is one of the most popular SaaS (Non-GAAP) metrics. Follow along to stay up to date!

AI 183

AI Revenue Cloud Technical Advisors 183

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 15, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 6.2x

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q4 ‘23 Two quotes from the Amazon and Microsoft earnings call really stood out to me this week. Sometimes they’re classic cloud migrations. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

Cost optimization & reporting 161

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Azure Report - Cloud Infra Looks Good! Azure doesn’t disclose exact Azure quarterly revenue (they disclose growth rate in absolute terms and in constant currency), but there are good estimations. Top 5 Median: 16.8x

Azure 177

Azure Cloud Software AI 177

Clouded Judgement

MAY 3, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Results Q1 earnings seasons has officially kicked off! Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 5.8x

Cost optimization & reporting 183

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Software Azure 183

Clouded Judgement

MAY 10, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. And no one raised full year guide >2% The median “beat” (Q1 revenue over Q1 consensus estimates) was 1.5%, which is the lowest it’s been in the last 4 years Overall, it’s been a TOUGH quarter for software companies.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. NTM revenue multiple. Their GAAP revenue grew 5% in 2023, and 29% in Q4 ‘23 YoY. Rubrik’s subscription ARR was $784m at the end of 2023 and growing 47% YoY. For context, full year GAAP revenue in 2023 was $628m.

Cloud 141

Cloud Scale Subscription Payment Features 141

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Amazon and Snowflake have both made comments recently that Cloud Optimizations are starting to play second fiddle to net new workload growth. We’re still in the early days of the cloud.” Follow along to stay up to date!

AWS 293

AWS Cloud AI Search Cost optimization & reporting 293

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Revisiting the “Is Software Expensive” Question The current median revenue multiple for the software universe is 6.4x, which is ~17% below the long term average multiple of 7.8x. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 177

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The ZIRP period created a lot of confusion given software buying was happening at a break neck pace - and it was easy to think you had differentiated product market fit because your business momentum (ie revenue) suggested you did.

Cloud 284

Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Metrics 284

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 189

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 189

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! ” Should be an exciting earning season!

Cloud 152

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. They don’t expect that aggregate $80m of revenue from 2023 to repeat in 2024. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now 2024 Guides - Are they Conservative? below consensus).

Cloud 161

Cloud Revenue Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 244

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 244

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 6.3x

Cloud 195

Cloud Pricing Startup Revenue 195

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. On top of that, the median NTM revenue multiple has only fell 1% from the start of the year to today. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! vs expectations of +3.4% (and +3.2%

Cloud 141

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 141

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 161

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. After the cloud giants reported this week, the timing of the presumed re-acceleration is very much in question. At the same time - Google Cloud also massively decelerated from 28% last quarter to 22% this quarter. which feels unlikely.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The second part is a nuanced point - the median cloud software stock is down 2% year-to-date. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! So the 2024 guides would be supportive of that.

Cloud 152

Cloud Metrics Revenue Subscription 152

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. The Gen AI investments are coming. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Azure AWS Software Review 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Andy Jassy doubled down on some of the commentary he’s made in the last few weeks about cloud optimization headwinds starting to abate. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Headcount Trends 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 11, 2024

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. Beating consensus revenue estimates is the first aspect of a successful quarter.

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Azure AWS 177

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 161

Cloud AWS Metrics Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 15, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 6.3x

Cloud 183

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 183

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 14, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Net New ARR Slowdown It’s no secret that cloud software businesses have seen headwinds over the last couple quarters. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! Headline CPI came in at 5.0%

Cloud 169

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 169

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 13, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! consensus and +3.7% consensus and +4.3%

Cloud 169

Cloud Artificial Intelligence Subscription Payment Features 169

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Hard Landing? Soft Landing? No Landing?

Cloud 268

Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 268

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 4, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Update “What we're seeing in the quarter is that those cost optimizations, while still going on, are moderating and many maybe behind us in some of our large customers. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Cost optimization & reporting AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

MAY 19, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. For those who don’t, I’m using quarterly subscription revenue x4 to estimate ARR. This tells me new bookings still present a headwind (and we’re not seeing improvements yet) Second - Quarterly revenue growth.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 177

Cloud Scale Compensation Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 152

Cloud Banking Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 18, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Follow along to stay up to date! Overall Stats: Overall Median: 5.7x

Cloud 243

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 243

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 21, 2023

Q3 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Commentary from the cloud providers seems to be that the major macro headwinds around optimizations and new deal scrutiny have started to abate. Q3 Revenue Relative to Consensus Estimates Now let’s dive in to the financial results of Q3 starting with revenue.

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 177

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 17, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 152

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 152

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. A favorite clip of mine is when Russ Hanneman is talking about how pre-revenue businesses are the best kind of businesses. A favorite clip of mine is when Russ Hanneman is talking about how pre-revenue businesses are the best kind of businesses.

Cloud 161

Cloud Scale Revenue Pricing 161

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The disconnect in rates and multiples is even more stark when we look at growth adjusted multiples (taking revenue multiples and dividing them by forward growth rates). Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

Cloud 183

Cloud Government Banking Software Review 183