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Clouded Judgement 12.1.23 - Net New ARR Starts to Rebound + AWS ReInvent Recap

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Amazon ReInvent This week Amazon had their annual AWS ReInvent conference. ” AWS fully embracing the breadth over depth approach. Looking at the mid to long term, we feel very optimistic about the outlook for strong AWS growth. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Top 5 Median: 16.6x

AWS 293
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Clouded Judgement 3.22.24 - ERR vs ARR and the Conundrum of AI Revenue Streams Today

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) vs ERR (Experimental Runrate Revenue) ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is one of the most popular SaaS (Non-GAAP) metrics. For SaaS businesses that target smaller SMB customer segments, gross retention is typically in the mid to low 80’s with net expansion in the ~105% range.

AI 183
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Clouded Judgement 5.3.24 - Hyperscalers Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Reports

Clouded Judgement

We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). The most notable change in tone was Andy Jassy talking about AWS. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Top 5 Median: 17.5x

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

net retention and CAC payback). This has all resulted in the median stock price declining 5% YTD. It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. Is Software Rebounding? Who are the real AI winners.

Cloud 177
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Clouded Judgement 2.2.24 - Cloud Giants Report Q4 '23

Clouded Judgement

Amazon on AWS : “…customers are continuing to shift their focus towards driving innovation and bringing new workloads to the cloud. They also are seeing AI revenue (largely compute) show up sooner than anyone else. I’d say both of the “non AI” Azure / AWS figures weren’t actually that strong?

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Is it Really ARR? In 2021+, Yes. As Long As NRR is > 100%

SaaStr

So many startups these days are claiming they have “ARR” from revenue that … doesn’t recur. Doesn’t ARR stand for Annual Recurring Revenue? ARR now really means revenue with 100%+ Net Revenue Retention. 50% revenue from software (recurring), 50% from payments (not-recurring). .

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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. That is not new.”