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Clouded Judgement 4.26.24 - Azure Gives Positive Infra Software Preview

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Azure Report - Cloud Infra Looks Good! For software, all eyes were on Azure - which grew 31% YoY (ahead of expectations closer to 29%). Azure doesn’t disclose exact Azure quarterly revenue (they disclose growth rate in absolute terms and in constant currency), but there are good estimations.

Azure 177
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What Happens When AI Performance Asymptotes?

Tom Tunguz

In the past, the bigger the AI model, the better the performance. GPT4 3/14/23 1760 0.864 But model performance will soon asymptote - at least on this metric. GPT4 3/14/23 1760 0.864 But model performance will soon asymptote - at least on this metric. OpenAI Model Release Date Parameters, B MMLU GPT2 2/14/19 1.5 3/15/22 175 0.7

AI 194
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Clouded Judgement 3.22.24 - ERR vs ARR and the Conundrum of AI Revenue Streams Today

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) vs ERR (Experimental Runrate Revenue) ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is one of the most popular SaaS (Non-GAAP) metrics. However, it’s also one of the most loosely used metrics, and is frequently misused. This brings me to AI (everything leads to AI these days…).

AI 183
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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

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Clouded Judgement 2.2.24 - Cloud Giants Report Q4 '23

Clouded Judgement

” Microsoft on Azure : “And I think last quarter, we said one, we are going to continue to have these cycles where people will build new workloads. So what you're seeing is much more of that continuous cycles by customers, both when it comes to AI or whether it comes to the traditional workloads.”

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Through these interactions, I’ve built up mental benchmarks for metrics on which I place extra emphasis. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g., Who are the real AI winners. net retention and CAC payback).

Cloud 177
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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

So far - you’re either tied to AI tailwinds, or it’s rough out there. And in the public universe, it’s really only been the hyperscalers who’ve benefited from AI. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against.

Cloud 161