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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

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Clouded Judgement 2.2.24 - Cloud Giants Report Q4 '23

Clouded Judgement

Amazon on AWS : “…customers are continuing to shift their focus towards driving innovation and bringing new workloads to the cloud. ” Microsoft on Azure : “And I think last quarter, we said one, we are going to continue to have these cycles where people will build new workloads. Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 3.22.24 - ERR vs ARR and the Conundrum of AI Revenue Streams Today

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) vs ERR (Experimental Runrate Revenue) ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is one of the most popular SaaS (Non-GAAP) metrics. However, it’s also one of the most loosely used metrics, and is frequently misused. This brings me to AI (everything leads to AI these days…).

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Through these interactions, I’ve built up mental benchmarks for metrics on which I place extra emphasis. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g., Who are the real AI winners. net retention and CAC payback).

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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

So far - you’re either tied to AI tailwinds, or it’s rough out there. And in the public universe, it’s really only been the hyperscalers who’ve benefited from AI. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against.

Cloud 161
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Clouded Judgement 4.28.23

Clouded Judgement

AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. Azure reported on Tuesday and gave us that glimmer of hope. Then AWS appeared to add fuel to that hope before giving us a huge rug pull. Azure came in at 31% (constant currency). They then guided to 26-27% Azure growth in Q2.

Cloud 130
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Clouded Judgement 10.20.23 - Hyperscaler Q3 Preview

Clouded Judgement

Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. These are thought to be the early AI winners, largely due to all of the compute they’re selling to power GenAI applications. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

Cloud 161