Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

” Were 2023 Software Estimates Already De-Risked To Start The Year? We’ve seen a number of companies report Q4 ‘22, and then guide for the full year 2023 (first look at 2023 guides, or the companies view on how the year will turn out). They guided 2023 1% above consensus. The primary reason (I think)?

Cloud 273

Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 273

Clouded Judgement

JULY 16, 2024

We estimate our total addressable market opportunity across all enterprises and mid-market organizations to be approximately $50 billion as of December 31, 2023. We recognize revenue from our SaaS contracts ratably over the term of the subscription period, which is typically three years but can range from less than one year up to ten years.

Benchmarks 295

Benchmarks Data Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence 295

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 1, 2024

Funds have gotten quite large and haven’t deployed much in 2022 / 2023. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 317

Cloud AI Investment Metrics 317

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Below you can see the top performers from 2023. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cloud 196

Cloud Software Review Payment Features Subscription 196

Stax

MARCH 13, 2025

Credit and debit cards have become the preferred payment methods for many, and it isn’t hard to see why. This small rectangular piece of plastic enables customers to ditch bulky wads of cash, making payments easier and safer. One way to do this is to encourage card-present transactions.

Payment Services 88

Payment Services Merchant Services Payment Methods Technical Review 88

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

The full year guide assumes 14% growth for this upcoming year after they grew 31% in 2023. They did call out a couple one time benefits they saw in 2023 they don’t expect to see in 2024. The other one time benefit from 2023 was ~$40m of multi-year license deals. A year ago, they guided 2023 growth to 16%.

Cloud 167

Cloud Payment Features Subscription Revenue 167

FastSpring

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

In case you missed it, our recent 2023 SaaS and Software Holiday Spend Report highlights how, whether your business focuses on B2C, B2B, or both , SaaS and software Q4 sales bumps are significant around the globe. Publishing, subscription & monetization tools can help build your fanbase.” Deal: “50% off your first year.”

Payment Solutions 88

Payment Solutions Software Review Payment Methods SaaS Payments 88

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 25, 2023

We built our data store from the ground up to be agile, unbound by specific schema or data structures, and, as of June 30, 2023, we are able to process data from over 300 native integrations and open APIs without friction. The vast majority of our subscription plans today are monthly.

Benchmarks 246

Benchmarks Artificial Intelligence Data Software Review 246

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 19, 2024

Their GAAP revenue grew 5% in 2023, and 29% in Q4 ‘23 YoY. Rubrik’s subscription ARR was $784m at the end of 2023 and growing 47% YoY. For context, full year GAAP revenue in 2023 was $628m. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 144

Cloud Scale Subscription Payment Features 144

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. There have been many companies who’ve seen their quarterly net new ARR decrease each quarter through 2023. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Cloud 167

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Payment Features 167

Subscription Flow

DECEMBER 18, 2023

One crescendo in the symphony of seasonal commerce is subscription boxes. Above and beyond the norm, these carefully chosen surprises are the contemporary counterpart of Yuletide cheer, providing an unmatched present-giving experience. To outperform, offering personalized subscription boxes can be a very considerable option.

Payment Features 105

Payment Features Subscription Trends Social Media 105

Stax

AUGUST 29, 2024

The question is: how do payment service providers work and how can you choose the right one for your business? PSPs offer joint merchant accounts and flat-rate processing fees that make them ideal solutions for small businesses that only process payments occasionally. Read on to find out.

Merchant Services 88

Merchant Services Payment Services Payment Methods Payment Solutions 88

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 13, 2023

growth in 2023. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA. Securities and Exchange Commission. consensus and +3.7%

Cloud 176

Cloud Artificial Intelligence Payment Features Subscription 176

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2023

We’re undoubtedly set up for a very interesting 2023. To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4. Not every company reports subscription revenue, so they’ve been left out of the analysis (or I’ve estimated their % subscription revenue).

Cloud 167

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 167

FastSpring

APRIL 18, 2024

Basic Pricing Localization The most basic pricing localization is as simple as currency conversion, so that buyers in different regions are presented with prices in their own local currencies. Besides debit and credit cards, FastSpring accepts wire transfers, Apple Pay, SEPA Direct Debit, Alipay, Pix, and many other payment options!

Payment Methods 78

Payment Methods Payments SaaS Payments Merchant Services 78

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 13, 2023

That was more broadly a period of ZIRP, and it’s interesting that today the 10Y isn’t hugely different from where it was in the period of 2010 - 2020 Morgan Stanley CIO Survey Everyone is eagerly awaiting 2023 forecasts to be “de-risked.” growth in 2023 (so not much change in 1 quarter).

Cloud 130

Cloud Forecasting Payment Features Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

The expected budget growth for 2023 currently sits at 2.8%. So clearly the early expectations for growth in 2023 are coming in low. Within the broader IT budgets, software did have the highest growth expectations for 2023 at 3.1%. at the far right is the initial expectation for 2023 budget growth. The purple dot at 2.8%

Cloud 130

Cloud Payment Features Subscription Trends 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 27, 2023

Early Look at 2023 Guides Given the Azure weakness reported on Tuesday, all software tumbled Wednesday morning with most names down 5-10%. A big reason for that was the guides for the full year 2023 we saw. We’ll get a lot more data points in the coming weeks on how other companies guide for 2023.

Cloud 144

Cloud Azure Pricing Payment Features 144

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 24, 2023

The end result was the expected result prior to the banking crisis - a 25bps hike 2023 Full Year Guides We’re nearly through Q4 ‘22 earnings season. The chart below shows 2023 guides vs 2023 consensus estimates to star the year. The chart below shows 2023 guides vs 2023 consensus estimates to star the year.

Cloud 130

Cloud Banking Payment Features Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

You can find the first link here Well, we now have the benefit of hindsight, and all the Fed officials who were saying we wouldn’t see rate hikes until the end of 2023 have proven completely wrong… From the time of those headlines to today we saw some of the steepest rates hikes we’ve ever seen!

Cloud 190

Cloud Government Banking Software Review 190

Clouded Judgement

MAY 10, 2024

After a strong finish in Q4, we saw a return to weaker demand conditions in the first quarter, similar to what we experienced in 2023. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Securities and Exchange Commission.

Cloud 167

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure 167

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 3, 2023

3 months ago they guided to 47% growth for 2023. The red dot is what they’re guided to for the full year 2023 growth (which means the quarterly YoY growth in Q4 ‘23 would be lower than the red dot which is at 24% ). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 144

Cloud Forecasting Payment Features Subscription 144

Clouded Judgement

JULY 19, 2024

If we rewind the clock back to the start of 2023, here’s how the Magnificent 7 has performed from then till now: Apple +73%. While the Nasdaq was up 71% from the start of 2023, the IWM index (Russell 2000) was up only 27%. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 144

Cloud Healthcare AI Revenue 144

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 2, 2022

2023 Forecasts There are 2 primary questions that matter right now for software stocks - are rates going up or down, and are numbers (foreword estimates) going up or down. The big risk still on the table remains 2023 estimates - specifically are they too high. This is a reduction in 2023 estimates by ~7%. When will that happen?

Cloud 130

Cloud Forecasting Software Review Revenue 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

If we look at where estimates were in the fall (for year end 2024), vs where they were at the end of 2023, the median company saw their 2024 consensus estimate fall 1%. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cloud 157

Cloud Trends Payment Features Subscription 157

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The below charts show the distribution of projections for GDP growth in 2023, 2024, 2025. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 157

Cloud Banking Payment Features Subscription 157

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 23, 2022

As I’ve said many times before, in 2023 the focus for software valuations will completely shift from interest rates (and multiples) to fundamentals. 2023 consensus estimates starting to come down. Wrapping this all up, we’re now starting to see 2023 estimates revised down. Q3 was a tough quarter.

Cloud 130

Cloud Sales Hiring Trends Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 20, 2023

To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4. So for public companies the formula to calculate gross margin adjusted payback is: [(Previous Q S&M) / ((Current Q Subscription Rev x 4)  -(Previous Q Subscription Rev x 4)) x Gross Margin] x 12 Here’s the payback data from Q4.

Cloud 167

Cloud Software Benchmarks Scale 167

Clouded Judgement

MAY 12, 2023

On a related note - when we look at companies who gave full year 2023 guidance this quarter vs last quarter, on average those companies are not changing their guidance at all (median change in guide is 0%). There are some outliers, but for the universe who’ve reported so far the takeaway is 2023 guides were de-risked.

Cloud 130

Cloud Entrepreneurship Government Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 20, 2023

In it he said “we’re very optimistic about 2023…not a chance for an IT recession in 2023…we’re hiring (when asked about a company like Salesforce who just announced a reduction in force).” ” Overall, he painted a different picture about 2023 than the consensus narrative.

Cloud 130

Cloud Interviewing Payment Features Subscription 130

User Pilot

JULY 27, 2023

Net present value: This calculates the present value of future cash flows associated with an engineering project. It considers subscription fees, additional purchases, upgrades, and renewals. Monthly Recurring Revenue : This metric measures the predictable revenue your company generates monthly from paying users.

Sales Hiring 98

Sales Hiring SaaS Payments Sales Recruiting CTO Hire 98

Clouded Judgement

MAY 26, 2023

2023 estimates seem de-risked at the moment (although Snowflake has taken down their 2023 YoY growth guide from 47% to 40% to 34% in last 2 quarters…so can’t be certain it’s truly de-risked). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 144

Cloud Azure Trends Forecasting 144

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 30, 2022

2023 will be the year we truly learn who the best businesses are. I think this continues in 2023. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). This post and the information presented are intended for informational purposes only.

Cloud 130

Cloud Payment Features Subscription Pricing 130

Stax

DECEMBER 9, 2024

when someone has canceled a subscription and still receives a charge) Goods or services not being received after the purchase Being charged an incorrect amount Unauthorized credit card usage (i.e. These records can serve as valuable evidence in the event of a chargeback dispute, helping you present your case to the card networks or issuers.

Merchant Services 88

Merchant Services Payment Services Payment Methods Software Review 88

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Summers","date":"Sun Feb 12 21:48:44 +0000 2023","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":26,"like_count":158,"expanded_url":{"url":"[link] Sees ‘Turbulent’ Time","description":"Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence H.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Payment Features Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 6, 2023

As I’ve talked about before, the big risk for 2023 are fundamentals - are forward estimates too high? Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). This post and the information presented are intended for informational purposes only.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Underperforming Technical Team 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

This article was a great quick read on a few other factors Larry Summers sees which brings him to a similar conclusion that current data looks good, but leading indicators are more troubling Update on 2023 Guides Updating a chart I’ve shared previously (2023 guides vs consensus at the start of the year).

Cloud 130

Cloud Payment Features Subscription Revenue 130