Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Below you can see the top performers from 2023. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 189

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 189

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. ” Were 2023 Software Estimates Already De-Risked To Start The Year? The graph below shows how companies have guided for 2023 relative to consensus at the start of the year. They guided 2023 1% above consensus. Hard Landing?

Cloud 268

Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 268

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. There are certainly some deals that happened in 2023 that haven’t announced yet (there’s always a lag), so I’d expect the 2023 bar to be slightly higher once everything has announced. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 284

Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Metrics 284

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cloud 152

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Subscription 161

SaaStr

NOVEMBER 3, 2022

SaaStr events couldn’t happen without our partners, and we wanted to give a special shout-out to some of our newest sponsors for SaaStr Annual 2023. ChartMogul is an analytics platform to help you run your subscription business. Join these incredible companies to experience all the value of SaaStr! appeared first on SaaStr.

Payments 230

Payments Payment Services GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Payment Solutions 230

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. After the cloud giants reported this week, the timing of the presumed re-acceleration is very much in question. At the same time - Google Cloud also massively decelerated from 28% last quarter to 22% this quarter. which feels unlikely.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Tom Tunguz

APRIL 1, 2024

y/y, estimated sales efficiency is 0.11, & contribution margins are negative : Rubrik sells $1 of subscription software for $0.88. It’s a strategic imperative to metamorphose from an on-premises perpetual-license company to a subscription-software company as fast as possible. But overall revenue is growing 4.5%

Data 195

Data Subscription Payment Features Cloud 195

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 24, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The end result was the expected result prior to the banking crisis - a 25bps hike 2023 Full Year Guides We’re nearly through Q4 ‘22 earnings season. The chart below shows 2023 guides vs 2023 consensus estimates to star the year.

Cloud 130

Cloud Banking Subscription Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

MAY 12, 2023

Earnings Update So far about half of the cloud software universe has reported Q1 earnings (43 companies in the universe I track). On a related note - when we look at companies who gave full year 2023 guidance this quarter vs last quarter, on average those companies are not changing their guidance at all (median change in guide is 0%).

Cloud 130

Cloud Government Entrepreneurship Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Azure (Microsoft) Quarter The week the first of the cloud giants reported - Azure. Early Look at 2023 Guides Given the Azure weakness reported on Tuesday, all software tumbled Wednesday morning with most names down 5-10%.

Cloud 141

Cloud Azure Pricing Subscription 141

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 13, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. That was more broadly a period of ZIRP, and it’s interesting that today the 10Y isn’t hugely different from where it was in the period of 2010 - 2020 Morgan Stanley CIO Survey Everyone is eagerly awaiting 2023 forecasts to be “de-risked.”

Cloud 130

Cloud Forecasting Subscription Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. This week Walmart and Home Depot reported earnings (I know, not the usual cloud software suspects!). As I noted above, so far companies are telling us 2023 estimates are ok. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 130

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 130

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 13, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. growth in 2023. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment consensus and +3.7%

Cloud 169

Cloud Artificial Intelligence Subscription Payment Features 169

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 6, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Cloud Downgrades This week UBS came out with a couple research reports citing concerns in AWS / Azure growth. As I’ve talked about before, the big risk for 2023 are fundamentals - are forward estimates too high?

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Underperforming Technical Team 130

Clouded Judgement

MAY 5, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. JFrog told us that “despite customers taking steps to be more efficient in their cloud consumption, we saw acceleration of cloud usage in both pay-as-you-go and annual SaaS customers.” Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Construction Trends Revenue 130

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 3, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. 3 months ago they guided to 47% growth for 2023. The red dot is what they’re guided to for the full year 2023 growth (which means the quarterly YoY growth in Q4 ‘23 would be lower than the red dot which is at 24% ).

Cloud 141

Cloud Forecasting Subscription Payment Features 141

Clouded Judgement

MAY 26, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. 2023 estimates seem de-risked at the moment (although Snowflake has taken down their 2023 YoY growth guide from 47% to 40% to 34% in last 2 quarters…so can’t be certain it’s truly de-risked). Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 141

Cloud Azure Trends Retention 141

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The expected budget growth for 2023 currently sits at 2.8%. So clearly the early expectations for growth in 2023 are coming in low. Within the broader IT budgets, software did have the highest growth expectations for 2023 at 3.1%.

Cloud 130

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 130

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 23, 2022

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. As I’ve said many times before, in 2023 the focus for software valuations will completely shift from interest rates (and multiples) to fundamentals. 2023 consensus estimates starting to come down. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Sales Hiring Trends Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 20, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. In it he said “we’re very optimistic about 2023…not a chance for an IT recession in 2023…we’re hiring (when asked about a company like Salesforce who just announced a reduction in force).”

Cloud 130

Cloud Interviewing Subscription Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The below charts show the distribution of projections for GDP growth in 2023, 2024, 2025. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Two takeaways.

Cloud 152

Cloud Banking Subscription Payment Features 152

SaaStr

OCTOBER 13, 2022

In June 2023, we’re heading back to London for SaaStr Europa and we wanted to give a special shout-out to some of the companies that will be there with us! ChartMogul is an analytics platform to help you run your subscription business. At SaaStr, our partners are an integral part of our events. Grab tickets here. .

GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 197

GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure AWS Enterprise readiness 197

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. 2023 will be the year we truly learn who the best businesses are. I think this continues in 2023. Congrats to Box for being the only positive returning cloud software stock of the year! Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Pricing 130

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. 2023 Forecasts There are 2 primary questions that matter right now for software stocks - are rates going up or down, and are numbers (foreword estimates) going up or down. This is a reduction in 2023 estimates by ~7%. When will that happen?

Cloud 130

Cloud Forecasting Software Review Revenue 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. 9:48 PM ∙ Feb 12, 2023 158 Likes 26 Retweets To make the analogy clear to non-football fans: it’s much easier to get inflation from 6% to 4% than from 4% to 2%. However, they guided for 2023 and called for 23-24% growth.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Revenue Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. A 2023 recession feels less likely, with 2024 being the more realistic timing if we do in fact get to a deeper recession. From the S&P to software, consensus was 2023 estimates were too high, and set to fall meaningfully. Market Offsides.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Generative AI 130

Stax

JANUARY 24, 2024

This makes the apparent new direction of Intuit, the developer of QuickBooks, symptomatic of the wider transition within the SaaS space towards cloud-based software solutions. Intuit also announced plans to stop selling several QuickBooks Desktop subscriptions to new U.S. subscribers after July 31, 2024.

Payment Solutions 88

Payment Solutions Payment Features Payment Services Payment Methods 88

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. What people cared more about was setting expectations for rate hikes in 2023, and what the fed funds rate would peak at. We are, in fact, starting to see forward estimates revised downward for cloud software companies. Core CPI was 6.0%

Cloud 130

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 183

Cloud Government Banking Software Review 183

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The graph below shows the difference between 2024 consensus growth rates and 2023 consensus growth rates (so 2024 growth minus 2023 growth). Securities and Exchange Commission. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Software Review 130

Software Review Cloud Software AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2023

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. We’re undoubtedly set up for a very interesting 2023. As you can see from the data below most cloud businesses beat the consensus estimates for Q4. This quarter more than half of cloud software businesses missed next quarters consensus.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. I expect Powell’s tone to continue throughout the year, but let’s see what happens in 2023. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cloud 130

Cloud Pricing Revenue Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 2, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. It’s a bit of a swag as not all companies report ARR (and where they don’t I’m calculating ARR as quarterly subscription revenue x4). Are 2023 Numbers De-Risked? Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 130

Cloud Trends SMB Subscription 130

SaaStr

JANUARY 10, 2024

It’s a true vertical SaaS leader — “Cloud for Construction” — growing an impressive 33% at $1 Billion (!) Just Starting to Get into Payments, Working Capital and Insurance / Fintech Procore is just starting to get into payments and fintech … at $1 Billion in ARR. in ARR now. Go long, folks.

Scale 214

Scale Payment Services Payment Features Construction 214

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 11, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The weakness they called out was from larger cloud-native businesses. The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) are seeing some uptick, but this is largely from selling compute (ie cloud GPUs). Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Trends Azure GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

SaaStr

DECEMBER 21, 2022

And my old division of Adobe, Document Cloud, is growing 21% at $2.4 Document Cloud revenue was $2.38 No Downturn in 2022, and None Predicted for Now in 2023. Adobe was very bullish for 2023. One of its oldest products and divisions, Document Cloud, is growing the fastest. Creative Cloud crossed $10B in ARR.

Scale 268

Scale Cloud Subscription Payment Features 268