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Clouded Judgement 12.1.23 - Net New ARR Starts to Rebound + AWS ReInvent Recap

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Amazon ReInvent This week Amazon had their annual AWS ReInvent conference. ” AWS fully embracing the breadth over depth approach. Looking at the mid to long term, we feel very optimistic about the outlook for strong AWS growth. Follow along to stay up to date! This year, there was tons of experimentation.

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Clouded Judgement 5.3.24 - Hyperscalers Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Reports

Clouded Judgement

We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). The most notable change in tone was Andy Jassy talking about AWS. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

net retention and CAC payback). It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. Through these interactions, I’ve built up mental benchmarks for metrics on which I place extra emphasis. Is Software Rebounding?

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Clouded Judgement 2.2.24 - Cloud Giants Report Q4 '23

Clouded Judgement

Amazon on AWS : “…customers are continuing to shift their focus towards driving innovation and bringing new workloads to the cloud. Azure (excluding Azure AI) continued to decelerate, and while AWS did come in ahead of expectations, it wasn’t a blow out. Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. That is not new.”

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Is it Really ARR? In 2021+, Yes. As Long As NRR is > 100%

SaaStr

ARR now really means revenue with 100%+ Net Revenue Retention. You pay a subscription for websites to help you sell stuff. Fast forward to day, Merchant Solutions is a much larger share of revenue than software subscriptions. Doesn’t ARR stand for Annual Recurring Revenue? Well of course it does.

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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

All 3 (AWS, Azure, GCP) saw positive reacceleration Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

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