Clouded Judgement

MARCH 1, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Update on Q4 Earnings One metric I love tracking in net new ARR added in a quarter. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against.

Cloud 311

Cloud AI Investment Revenue 311

SaaStr

DECEMBER 11, 2023

The most extreme example of the public Cloud and SaaS companies is Fastly. We saw Cloud and SaaS leaders sending unsolicited 3 year binding contacts to month-to-month customers. Track that metric religiously in 2024. Whatever you do, don’t Hide in NRR in 2024. 2024 Has to Be The Year of Growing It.

Cloud 296

Cloud Pricing Customer Success Metrics 296

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against.

Cloud 152

Cloud Trends Payment Features Subscription 152

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 3, 2024

Q2 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Through these interactions, I’ve built up mental benchmarks for metrics on which I place extra emphasis. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Couple takeaways for me: 2024 is shaping up to be the “prototype to production” year for AI. On the former - we’ll see a lot of these experiments translate to production facing apps in 2024. Follow along to stay up to date!

AWS 293

AWS Cloud AI Search Cost optimization & reporting 293

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. For both of those metrics I look at NTM (next twelve months) vs LTM (last twelve months). Of course, there are way more factors than just growth / FCF when determining valuation, so this is a crude metric. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 152

Cloud Metrics Revenue Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. After the cloud giants reported this week, the timing of the presumed re-acceleration is very much in question. Quite different then the expectation for acceleration in software in 2024. Follow along to stay up to date! which feels unlikely.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Going in to this earnings season I expected a big driver of stock price performance to be how 2024 full year estimates change pre / post earnings. I created this subset to show companies where FCF is a relevant valuation metric.

Cloud 195

Cloud Pricing Startup Revenue 195

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Wrapping all of this up, it appears that the market is either “pricing in” forward estimates coming up in 2024, or a big drop in rates (or both). I created this subset to show companies where FCF is a relevant valuation metric.

Cloud 177

Cloud Payment Features Subscription Revenue 177

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. ” From AWS (paraphrased): They said they expect the reaccleration they saw in Q4 to continue into 2024 2024 Estimate Updates One important metric I’m tracking this quarter is the change in 2024 estimates pre / post earnings.

Cloud 161

Cloud AWS Metrics Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. As you can see, the market is predicting one more hike, and then a slow decrease throughout 2024. As you can see, Fed officials are saying the fed funds rate will be ~5% in 2024, and ~4% in 2025. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 152

Cloud Banking Payment Features Subscription 152

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Reinventing Founder Friendliness - Back to the Future This week I joined Ed Sim (Founder and Managing Partner at Boldstart Ventures) on Harry Stebbings podcast to chat about the state of venture backed companies heading into 2024 and 2025.

Cloud 284

Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Revenue 284

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Net new ARR is something I track very closely for all of the private companies I work with, and it’s also an important metric to look at in public companies. Gartner estimates $5 trillion in tech spending in 2024, growing to $6.5

Cloud 161

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 11, 2024

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Through these interactions, I’ve built up mental benchmarks for metrics on which I place extra emphasis. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Azure AWS 177

Clouded Judgement

MAY 10, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. I created this subset to show companies where FCF is a relevant valuation metric.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure 161

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Let’s put aside the short term, and think about what the drivers will be of software valuations over the next couple quarters into the first half of 2024. Are 2024 estimates too high? Follow along to stay up to date! Just right?

Software Review 130

Software Review Cloud Software AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

MAY 12, 2023

Earnings Update So far about half of the cloud software universe has reported Q1 earnings (43 companies in the universe I track). As I mentioned last week, the big question now is around 2024 numbers, and if those need to come down. The further that gets pushed out, the more likely it is that 2024 numbers will need to come down.

Cloud 130

Cloud Entrepreneurship Government Payment Features 130

Clouded Judgement

MAY 5, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. JFrog told us that “despite customers taking steps to be more efficient in their cloud consumption, we saw acceleration of cloud usage in both pay-as-you-go and annual SaaS customers.” 2024 numbers.

Cloud 130

Cloud Construction Trends Revenue 130

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Andy Jassy doubled down on some of the commentary he’s made in the last few weeks about cloud optimization headwinds starting to abate. It appears 2024 will be more about building out new functionality vs “getting fit.”

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Headcount Trends 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 21, 2023

Q3 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Through these interactions, I’ve built up mental benchmarks for metrics on which I place extra emphasis. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 177

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Said another way, I believe that software valuations were holding up so well in the face of a ~5% 10Y because the market expected acceleration and 2024 numbers to come up. Follow along to stay up to date! Already we’ve seen huge earnings move.

Software Review 161

Software Review Cloud Software Azure 161

SaaStr

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

Discover Bessemer Venture Partners’s annual State of the Cloud report, going through trends, benchmarks, and metrics that underpin the Cloud economy. The past twelve months have been relatively turbulent for Cloud founders. What does this mean for Cloud companies? What does this mean for Cloud companies?

Cloud 252

Cloud Payments Software Review Payment Solutions 252

Clouded Judgement

MAY 26, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. An element of re-acceleration is definitely priced in to current 2024 estimates, so we may see 2024 estimates fall. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 141

Cloud Azure Trends Forecasting 141

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 21, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Morgan Stanley released a report yesterday suggesting “cloud optimizations [were] an intensifying headwind in Q1.” ” They anticipate Q1 will be the peak pressure on cloud spend, and we may see a re-acceleration heading into 2024.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. A 2023 recession feels less likely, with 2024 being the more realistic timing if we do in fact get to a deeper recession. Follow along to stay up to date! Thoughts on a Wild Start of the Year Today is a bit of a longer post, but lots to talk about.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Generative AI 130

SaaStr

SEPTEMBER 13, 2023

Founder and General Partner of Craft Ventures, David Sacks, shares his perspective on what to expect from SaaS in 2024. Before AI came on the scene, it was roughly a dozen years before a really big platform shift — Cloud and mobile were big, but it was time for something new to come along to reset and restock the pond with new opportunities.

SaaS Payments 225

SaaS Payments Payment Solutions AI SaaS 225

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

Q2 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Through these interactions, I’ve built up mental benchmarks for metrics on which I place extra emphasis. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g.,

Cloud 169

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 169

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 28, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. On last quarters earning call Microsoft really emphasized the weakening demand environment for Azure / Cloud as optimizations picked up. ” What?!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS AI Search 130

SaaStr

DECEMBER 13, 2023

So Jamin Ball at Altimeter Capital probably does the best job of tracking SaaS and Cloud metrics of public companies of anyone out there. Both have seen headwinds this past year and both said variants of the same thing: 2024 has to be better, if for no other reason than we’re lapping a tough renewal cycle.

SaaS 254

SaaS Cloud Scale Metrics 254

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 11, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The weakness they called out was from larger cloud-native businesses. The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) are seeing some uptick, but this is largely from selling compute (ie cloud GPUs). Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Trends Azure GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. 2024 will be the year of AI applications! Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 183

Cloud Artificial Intelligence AI GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 183

SaaStr

JULY 24, 2024

pic.twitter.com/wwcQeiEtVe — Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) July 19, 2024 But you should have. That big miss aside, it’s one of the most incredible SaaS and Cloud leaders out there. The metrics are breathtaking (even if there may be some short-term challenges now): $3.65

Airlines 235

Airlines Scale Cybersecurity Cloud 235

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. rate by end of 2024 (2 cuts), but the market is projecting ~4.7% (3 cuts). Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against.

Cloud 152

Cloud Revenue Payment Features Subscription 152

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. This is the set of companies who actually trade on FCF, or for who FCF is a relevant metric. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against.

Software Review 183

Software Review Cloud Software Revenue 183

SaaStr

APRIL 17, 2024

They’re still transitioning from onprem / appliciance model to cloud, which makes some of the metrics a touch confusing. For me, Net New Customer Count has become the metric I obsess the most about at scale. Rubrik has gone aggressively more upmarket — from just 23 $100k customers in 2019 to 1,742 in 2024. #3.

Scale 235

Scale Pricing Scaling Cloud 235

Tom Tunguz

OCTOBER 22, 2023

Last year, I covered 9 topics: Cloud data warehouses will process 75% of workloads by 2024. Data workloads segment into in-memory, cloud data warehouse, & cloud data lakes. Metrics layers unify the data stack. SaaS applications use the cloud data warehouse as a reading & writing database.

Trends 218

Trends AI Data Cloud 218

Tom Tunguz

APRIL 1, 2024

In fiscal 2023, we began transitioning customers from our legacy CDM (Cloud Data Management) capabilities to our subscription-based RSC offerings. The contribution margin has improved from -117% in 2022, to -38% in 2023, to -12% in 2024. The legacy business fell by 58%. Note the substantially lower margins of 44-47%.

Data 178

Data Payment Features Subscription Cloud 178