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Clouded Judgement 3.8.24 - 2024 Guides

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 2024 Guides - Are they Conservative? So far we’ve got a number of full year 2024 guides. They did call out a couple one time benefits they saw in 2023 they don’t expect to see in 2024. below consensus).

Cloud 161
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Pilot: 57% of Venture Startups Will Need to Raise More In 2024

SaaStr

Something that’s both not surprising but also pretty impactful: 57% of venture-backed startups will have to go “back to market” in 2024 to raise more capital. And realistically, most won’t have the metrics to pull off another round. But many will find 2024, those stretches have stretched as far as they can.

Startup 313
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Clouded Judgement 10.13.23 - 2024 Budget Expectations

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. So while it’s good to see broth expectations pick up for 2024, the current expectations would still be below the long term annual growth average. I created this subset to show companies where FCF is a relevant valuation metric.

Cloud 169
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Clouded Judgement 2.29.24 - Shades of 2021

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Update on Q4 Earnings One metric I love tracking in net new ARR added in a quarter. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against.

Cloud 311
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2023 Was The Year of Hiding Inside the Base. 2024 Has to Be The Year of Growing It.

SaaStr

The most extreme example of the public Cloud and SaaS companies is Fastly. We saw Cloud and SaaS leaders sending unsolicited 3 year binding contacts to month-to-month customers. Track that metric religiously in 2024. Whatever you do, don’t Hide in NRR in 2024. 2024 Has to Be The Year of Growing It.

Cloud 298
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Clouded Judgement 1.5.24

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against.

Cloud 152
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Clouded Judgement 2.23.24 - Rule of X

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. For both of those metrics I look at NTM (next twelve months) vs LTM (last twelve months). Of course, there are way more factors than just growth / FCF when determining valuation, so this is a crude metric. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 152