Clouded Judgement

MARCH 15, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Follow along to stay up to date! Even a DCF is riddled with long term assumptions.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Azure Report - Cloud Infra Looks Good! Azure doesn’t disclose exact Azure quarterly revenue (they disclose growth rate in absolute terms and in constant currency), but there are good estimations. Top 5 Median: 16.8x

Azure 177

Azure Cloud Software AI 177

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The ZIRP period created a lot of confusion given software buying was happening at a break neck pace - and it was easy to think you had differentiated product market fit because your business momentum (ie revenue) suggested you did.

Cloud 284

Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Metrics 284

SaaStr

DECEMBER 14, 2023

In the latest installment of SaaStr’s What’s New series – where we sit down with the leaders in SaaS and Cloud for the inside scoop on what’s top of mind and what’s new, SaaStr CEO and Jason Lemkin chats with the CMO of Google Cloud, Alison Wagonfeld. They also compete with Microsoft in a big way.

Cloud 229

Cloud Scale AWS AI 229

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Revisiting the “Is Software Expensive” Question The current median revenue multiple for the software universe is 6.4x, which is ~17% below the long term average multiple of 7.8x. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 177

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. NTM revenue multiple. Their GAAP revenue grew 5% in 2023, and 29% in Q4 ‘23 YoY. Their GAAP revenue grew 5% in 2023, and 29% in Q4 ‘23 YoY. For context, full year GAAP revenue in 2023 was $628m. Top 5 Median: 16.3x

Cloud 141

Cloud Scale Subscription Payment Features 141

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Amazon and Snowflake have both made comments recently that Cloud Optimizations are starting to play second fiddle to net new workload growth. We’re still in the early days of the cloud.” Follow along to stay up to date!

AWS 293

AWS Cloud AI Search Cost optimization & reporting 293

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 189

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 189

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. After the cloud giants reported this week, the timing of the presumed re-acceleration is very much in question. At the same time - Google Cloud also massively decelerated from 28% last quarter to 22% this quarter. which feels unlikely.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! ” Should be an exciting earning season!

Cloud 152

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 244

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 244

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. They don’t expect that aggregate $80m of revenue from 2023 to repeat in 2024. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years.

Cloud 161

Cloud Revenue Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. On top of that, the median NTM revenue multiple has only fell 1% from the start of the year to today. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! vs expectations of +3.4% (and +3.2%

Cloud 141

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 141

SaaStr

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

Discover Bessemer Venture Partners’s annual State of the Cloud report, going through trends, benchmarks, and metrics that underpin the Cloud economy. The past twelve months have been relatively turbulent for Cloud founders. What does this mean for Cloud companies? What does this mean for Cloud companies?

Cloud 236

Cloud Payments Software Review Payment Solutions 236

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now Are Forward Estimates Going Up?

Cloud 195

Cloud Pricing Startup Revenue 195

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The second part is a nuanced point - the median cloud software stock is down 2% year-to-date. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years.

Cloud 152

Cloud Metrics Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Follow along to stay up to date! Hard Landing? Soft Landing? No Landing? Top 5 Median: 12.6x

Cloud 268

Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 268

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 14, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Net New ARR Slowdown It’s no secret that cloud software businesses have seen headwinds over the last couple quarters. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! Headline CPI came in at 5.0%

Cloud 169

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 169

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 161

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 4, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Update “What we're seeing in the quarter is that those cost optimizations, while still going on, are moderating and many maybe behind us in some of our large customers. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Cost optimization & reporting AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 11, 2024

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g., We then dipped below the trendline as we hit the period of “cloud optimizations,” and things have started to rebound.

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Azure AWS 177

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Azure AWS Software Review 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Andy Jassy doubled down on some of the commentary he’s made in the last few weeks about cloud optimization headwinds starting to abate. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Headcount Trends 161

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 161

Cloud AWS Metrics Subscription 161

SaaStr

AUGUST 19, 2020

These are the Best of Time in Cloud and SaaS, as odd as that still seems. Public SaaS companies are now worth more than $1 trillion collectively , and Apple alone $2 trillion: With those massive valuations generally come insane expectations of growth, not just for now, but for a decade to come. You buy that growth.

Acquisition 265

Acquisition Cloud SaaS Pricing 265

SaaStr

MAY 16, 2022

But at end of the day, in Cloud, the question is if CIO and related spend will slow down. So follow AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. So there’s much angst and even panic with so many SaaS and Cloud public stocks down 50% or more from their peaks. Will things get worse for SaaS products themselves on a day-to-day basis?

Cloud 238

Cloud Azure AWS Engineering 238

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 15, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now Macro Update the 10Y rate dropped to 3.9%

Cloud 183

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 183

Clouded Judgement

MAY 19, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. For those who don’t, I’m using quarterly subscription revenue x4 to estimate ARR. This tells me new bookings still present a headwind (and we’re not seeing improvements yet) Second - Quarterly revenue growth.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 18, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Follow along to stay up to date! Even a DCF is riddled with long term assumptions.

Cloud 243

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 243

SaaStr

DECEMBER 6, 2021

If you follow the public markets, you can see a lot of top SaaS stocks recently have been hit — hard. SaaS and Cloud have been on an incredible tear the last decade, and especially the last 5 years, like we’ve never seen before. But: Cloud stocks are still up 1064% over the past 8 years. More on that here.

Cloud 220

Cloud SaaS Enterprise Startup 220

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 13, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Follow along to stay up to date! consensus and +3.7% YoY in Aug Core CPI 4.1%

Cloud 169

Cloud Artificial Intelligence Subscription Payment Features 169

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 177

Cloud Scale Compensation Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 21, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Morgan Stanley released a report yesterday suggesting “cloud optimizations [were] an intensifying headwind in Q1.” ” They anticipate Q1 will be the peak pressure on cloud spend, and we may see a re-acceleration heading into 2024.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 152

Cloud Banking Subscription Payment Features 152

SaaStr

FEBRUARY 22, 2021

We did a deep dive on Google Cloud’s incredible numbers the other day here but there was one point in particular it’s worth doing a deep dive on. The point is that as crazy as SaaS and Cloud seems today, Google itself says we’re on our way to $1T+ in Cloud revenue by 2026/2027, and that things will triple by then.

Cloud 318

Cloud Revenue Product Marketing SaaS 318

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. A favorite clip of mine is when Russ Hanneman is talking about how pre-revenue businesses are the best kind of businesses. A favorite clip of mine is when Russ Hanneman is talking about how pre-revenue businesses are the best kind of businesses.

Cloud 161

Cloud Scale Revenue Pricing 161