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Clouded Judgement 9.13.24 - 2024 Estimates

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Generally, software companies follow a beat-and-raise model in their forecasts. There’s less margin for error in software forecasting, and “beats and raises” have become harder to achieve than ever before.

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Clouded Judgement 10.18.24 - From Systems of Record to Systems of Intelligence

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Sales reps, for instance, hate entering data into Salesforce after every call, and managers often find this data inaccurate or incomplete, making forecasting a challenge. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

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Clouded Judgement 3.29.24 - Q4 Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. For the majority of the software universe, Q4 earning season was not a catalyst for future forecasts to go up. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

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Clouded Judgement 9.20.24 - Rate Cuts Begin!

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Officials adjusted their unemployment rate forecast for this years end from 4% to 4.4% After the cuts this week, and with the forecasts for the rest of the year, the fed is telling us there will be ~1% of aggregate cuts this year.

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A Look Back at Q1 '24 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Q1 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. These charts clearly show the ZIRP pull forward, the ensuing cloud cost optimizations, and then the recovery. GCP data is a bit more noisy as they don’t disclose GCP itself, but rather Google Cloud which includes GSuite.

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A Look Back at Q2 '24 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Q2 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Every public company has a number of equity research analysts covering them who build their own forecasted models, which combine guidance from the company and their own research / sentiment analysis. So what are these consensus estimates and who creates them?

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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. I believe one of the bigger reasons software has held up despite the run up in the 10Y to 5% is the expectation for re-acceleration (ie numbers / forecasts going up). Follow along to stay up to date! which feels unlikely.