Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q4 ‘23 Two quotes from the Amazon and Microsoft earnings call really stood out to me this week. Sometimes they’re classic cloud migrations. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cost optimization & reporting 161

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 161

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 15, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Wrapping all of this up, it appears that the market is either “pricing in” forward estimates coming up in 2024, or a big drop in rates (or both). Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 177

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

MAY 3, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Results Q1 earnings seasons has officially kicked off! Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cost optimization & reporting 183

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Software Azure 183

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Going in to this earnings season I expected a big driver of stock price performance to be how 2024 full year estimates change pre / post earnings. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 195

Cloud Pricing Startup Revenue 195

Clouded Judgement

MAY 10, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure 161

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. There are also many late stage companies who will never get back to the valuation they raised at in 2021 (when thinking about an exit, not just the price a venture firm is willing to pay in a round…). Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 284

Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Metrics 284

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Azure Report - Cloud Infra Looks Good! The full quote is below: “We expect capital expenditures to increase materially on a sequential basis driven by cloud and AI infrastructure investments.

Azure 177

Azure Cloud Software AI 177

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 244

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 244

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 189

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 189

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cloud 152

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Amazon and Snowflake have both made comments recently that Cloud Optimizations are starting to play second fiddle to net new workload growth. We’re still in the early days of the cloud.” Follow along to stay up to date!

AWS 293

AWS Cloud AI Search Cost optimization & reporting 293

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. If wages go up, inflation usually follows and consumers can weather the storm of higher prices for goods because their salary went up. The market had priced in downward earnings revisions. Follow along to stay up to date! Hard Landing?

Cloud 268

Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 268

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 11, 2024

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. This has all resulted in the median stock price declining 5% YTD. We then dipped below the trendline as we hit the period of “cloud optimizations,” and things have started to rebound. What’s going on with rates (the 10Y has gone from 3.9%

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Azure AWS 177

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 161

Cloud Revenue Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. After the cloud giants reported this week, the timing of the presumed re-acceleration is very much in question. At the same time - Google Cloud also massively decelerated from 28% last quarter to 22% this quarter. which feels unlikely.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Clouded Judgement

MAY 19, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Medium and high growth software companies have seen a median stock price performance this year of 21% and 26% respectively. For those who don’t, I’m using quarterly subscription revenue x4 to estimate ARR.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 14, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Net New ARR Slowdown It’s no secret that cloud software businesses have seen headwinds over the last couple quarters. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 169

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 169

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 141

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 141

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The second part is a nuanced point - the median cloud software stock is down 2% year-to-date. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cloud 152

Cloud Metrics Revenue Subscription 152

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 4, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Update “What we're seeing in the quarter is that those cost optimizations, while still going on, are moderating and many maybe behind us in some of our large customers. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Cost optimization & reporting AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 161

Cloud Azure AWS Software Review 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Andy Jassy doubled down on some of the commentary he’s made in the last few weeks about cloud optimization headwinds starting to abate. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Headcount Trends 161

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 161

Cloud AWS Metrics Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The WIRP function is used to show the implied probabilities of interest rate moves at future central bank meetings based on the pricing of interest rate futures. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 152

Cloud Banking Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 15, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 183

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 183

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The answer is they may, but just at a different price / valuation. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 177

Cloud Scale Compensation Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 18, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 243

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 243

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 21, 2023

Q3 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Commentary from the cloud providers seems to be that the major macro headwinds around optimizations and new deal scrutiny have started to abate. To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4.

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 177

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 13, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 169

Cloud Artificial Intelligence Subscription Payment Features 169

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 21, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Morgan Stanley released a report yesterday suggesting “cloud optimizations [were] an intensifying headwind in Q1.” ” They anticipate Q1 will be the peak pressure on cloud spend, and we may see a re-acceleration heading into 2024.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Competitors start telling prospects you’re competing on that “that company will screw you in the future because their VCs will force them to price gouge you so they can make money.” Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud Scale Revenue Pricing 161

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. 2022 Top Performers Below is a table that shows the top 10 share price performers of 2022. Congrats to Box for being the only positive returning cloud software stock of the year! Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 130

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Pricing 130

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 17, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. If we look back at the same prediction from 1 month ago, we now have roughly ~1 incremental rate hike priced in through Jan ‘25 vs what we had 1 month ago. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 152

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 152

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Azure (Microsoft) Quarter The week the first of the cloud giants reported - Azure. ” Or said another way, “has the market appropriately discounted the rocky road ahead, and is this priced in.”

Cloud 141

Cloud Azure Pricing Subscription 141