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Clouded Judgement 12.1.23 - Net New ARR Starts to Rebound + AWS ReInvent Recap

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Amazon ReInvent This week Amazon had their annual AWS ReInvent conference. ” AWS fully embracing the breadth over depth approach. Looking at the mid to long term, we feel very optimistic about the outlook for strong AWS growth. Follow along to stay up to date! This year, there was tons of experimentation.

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Search at Intercom: Building our Elasticsearch cloud on AWS

Intercom, Inc.

For this reason, we chose to run exclusively on AWS and wherever possible, we make use of battle-tested AWS services, be it RDS Aurora for our relational databases, the Simple Queue Service (SQS) for our async workers or ElastiCache for our caching layer. SSM executes the commands using an on-instance daemon agent called AWS SSM Agent.

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The Capex Conquest in the Cloud

Tom Tunguz

Cloud Capex in Q1 AWS $14 billion Azure $14 billion Google Cloud $12 billion These are not one-time investments, but part of a broader trend that started to occur after the introduction of GPT 3 in mid-2020 Amazon was the first to invest significantly. “Moving to AWS. 8 percentage points increased margins in a quarter is titanic.

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The Battle for AI Gravity

Tom Tunguz

AWS & others have stopped charging to move data. AWS cut prices more than 100 times in its first five years. Plus, data movement is less expensive than in the previous era. New data formats like Iceberg simplify data movement. Both have decreased switching costs.

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Gas Gas Revolution

Tom Tunguz

In 2021, Amazon announced they had reduced prices on Amazon Web Services 107 times since launch. This drop in prices has grown AWS into a $90b revenue business in 17 years. At those prices, not many transactions are economically viable. AWS Aurora has benefitted from efficiency gains since 1986 - 37 years of development.

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A Look Back at Q1 '24 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It’s worth pointing out that Azure is a bit above the long term trendline, while AWS is still below (but accelerating up). Change in Share Price At the end of the day what investors care about is what happened to the stock after earnings were reported. What I’ve shown below is the market-adjusted stock price reaction.

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Gartner: Software Spend Will Grow 13.8% in 2024, to Over $1 Trillion For The First Time

SaaStr

On top of that, inflation and price increases are eating into overall IT budgets. Growth in public cloud services (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, Snowflake, etc.) will grow the fastest at 20.4%, and price increases and increased utilization at existing vendors will consume a significant amount of that growth. With some big caveats.