Clouded Judgement

MARCH 1, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 311

Cloud AI Investment Metrics 311

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q4 ‘23 Two quotes from the Amazon and Microsoft earnings call really stood out to me this week. Sometimes they’re classic cloud migrations. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cost optimization & reporting 161

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 161

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 15, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 161

Baremetrics

AUGUST 18, 2021

Invoicing is a sales process where a seller issues a commercial document to a buyer requesting payment. This document shows all products and services rendered, the payment owed, and the contact details of both the buyer and the seller. An invoice also represents credit because the seller will only receive cash at a future date.

Payment Features 83

Payment Features SaaS Payments Payment Methods Payments 83

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Are Software Companies Over or Undervalued? Today I wanted to dig in to this question and its implications: “Are software companies fairly valued today?” Follow along to stay up to date!

Software Review 183

Software Review Cloud Software Revenue 183

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Software Setup Currently, interest rates seem to be the primary driver of software valuations. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Software Review 130

Software Review Cloud Software AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Rubrik’s subscription ARR was $784m at the end of 2023 and growing 47% YoY. The right way to view Rubrik is really more of a high growth software business growing >40%. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 141

Cloud Scale Subscription Payment Features 141

SaaStr

MARCH 23, 2023

Chargebee is a recurring billing and subscription management tool that helps SaaS and SaaS-like businesses streamline Revenue Operations. Chargebee integrates with the leading payment gateways like Stripe, Braintree, PayPal etc.

Payment Features 199

Payment Features SaaS Payments Payments Payment Methods 199

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 16, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Growth Adjusted Software Multiples The last 6 weeks (since the start of May) has been quite the run for software companies. I’m using the period of 2010+ given that’s really when cloud software came about.

Cloud 130

Cloud Software Revenue Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. I pulled some data from Pitchbook that you can see below (screen was for US based companies that they categorize as “software”). Follow along to stay up to date! Or who thought their market was 10x bigger than it actually was.

Cloud 284

Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Metrics 284

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Revisiting the “Is Software Expensive” Question The current median revenue multiple for the software universe is 6.4x, which is ~17% below the long term average multiple of 7.8x.

Cloud 177

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Some of these drops rival one of the worst ever software earnings reaction of Tableau in 2016! On Thursday the software index (WCLD) was up ~3%! So what’s holding up software stocks valuations?? Atlassian was down ~10%.

Software Review 161

Software Review Cloud Software Azure 161

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 10Y Rising The start of the year has not been kind to software stocks! In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 152

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 152

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Growth Deceleration of Consumption Companies So far, 2023 guides have not been pretty for consumption software companies. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 244

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 244

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 189

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 189

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. I believe one of the bigger reasons software has held up despite the run up in the 10Y to 5% is the expectation for re-acceleration (ie numbers / forecasts going up). Quite different then the expectation for acceleration in software in 2024.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Is this a sign that software headwinds have bottomed? Amazon and Snowflake have both made comments recently that Cloud Optimizations are starting to play second fiddle to net new workload growth. Follow along to stay up to date!

AWS 293

AWS Cloud AI Search Cost optimization & reporting 293

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. What’s maybe most interesting about the rise in the 10Y is the relatively little impact it’s had on software valuations. The average YTD performance of my index of ~80 software companies is only down 5%.

Cloud 141

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 141

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Either way - they ended up performing much better than their initial guide, and ultimately their stock was one of the top preforming software companies in 2023 (they were up >100%). Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 161

Cloud Revenue Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

Q2 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. As you can see from the data below most cloud businesses beat the consensus estimates for Q2 Source: company filings and Pitchbook consensus estimates Historically, the median beat of consensus estimates is closer to ~4%.

Cloud 169

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 169

Clouded Judgement

JULY 21, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Are Software Companies Bad Businesses? There was some talk last week on the All-In podcast about software companies. The gold standard for all public software companies is GAAP net income in the fullness of time.

Cloud 130

Cloud Software Sales Hiring Scale 130

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 20, 2023

Q1 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. The question on everyone’s mind - when will we see software re-accelerate? The real headwinds to software (tougher expansion, longer sales cycles / procurement, slower new business, budget crunches / RIFs, etc) started last August.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Benchmarks Scale 161

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The second part is a nuanced point - the median cloud software stock is down 2% year-to-date. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cloud 152

Cloud Metrics Revenue Subscription 152

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2023

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Less than half of the software universe is guiding above consensus, and the median guide has gone from ~2.5% As you can see from the data below most cloud businesses beat the consensus estimates for Q4. At the same time, forward guides are also weakening.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. After a few software companies have reported we can start to look at the data behind “are numbers going up.” Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 195

Cloud Pricing Startup Revenue 195

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 14, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Net New ARR Slowdown It’s no secret that cloud software businesses have seen headwinds over the last couple quarters. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 169

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 169

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Q3 ‘23 Earnings Summary Preview The vast majority of all software companies have now reported Q3. Let’s see if this trend continues in Q4, but I think we’re starting to get to the end of the software recession.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Headcount Trends 161

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. ” Were 2023 Software Estimates Already De-Risked To Start The Year? Another topic I’ve discussed at length here is the question of “are forward estimates too high” for software companies. Hard Landing?

Cloud 268

Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 268

Clouded Judgement

MAY 19, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Reflections on Software Performance in Q1 Software stocks have enjoyed quite the run this year. Medium and high growth software companies have seen a median stock price performance this year of 21% and 26% respectively.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 161

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 26, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Many public software companies don’t report ARR, so I’ll take the quarterly subscription revenue and multiply it by 4 to approximate ARR. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 161

Cloud Marketplace as a Service AI Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 4, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Update “What we're seeing in the quarter is that those cost optimizations, while still going on, are moderating and many maybe behind us in some of our large customers. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Cost optimization & reporting AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now January Green Shoots A couple key software players have given us commentary in their Q4 earnings report (quarter ending December) that January (the first month of Q1) saw some green-shoots. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 161

Cloud AWS Metrics Subscription 161

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 161

Cloud Azure AWS Software Review 161

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 18, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Now let’s look at some Q2 software earnings data starting with net new ARR trends. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against.

Cloud 243

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 243

Stax

FEBRUARY 28, 2024

Here’s an interesting stat: 70% of businesses consider subscription and membership models indispensable for future commercial growth and expansion. Software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses need to constantly evolve their offerings to stay fresh and relevant. How do you add payment processing capabilities to your software?

Payments 88

Payments SaaS Payments Payment Services Merchant Services 88

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 20, 2022

Q3 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. As you can see from the data below most cloud businesses beat the consensus estimates for Q3. This quarter more than half of cloud software businesses missed next quarters consensus. Some software companies also have seasonality in the “payback.”

Cloud 130

Cloud Software Review Software Benchmarks 130