article thumbnail

Clouded Judgement 1.12.24 - Hard Truths

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Reinventing Founder Friendliness - Back to the Future This week I joined Ed Sim (Founder and Managing Partner at Boldstart Ventures) on Harry Stebbings podcast to chat about the state of venture backed companies heading into 2024 and 2025. 2025 is probably the year of max pain in the venture ecosystem.

Cloud 284
article thumbnail

Clouded Judgement 10.6.23 - Fed Projections

Clouded Judgement

As you can see, Fed officials are saying the fed funds rate will be ~5% in 2024, and ~4% in 2025. The below charts show the distribution of projections for GDP growth in 2023, 2024, 2025. I created this subset to show companies where FCF is a relevant valuation metric. Two takeaways.

Cloud 152
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

How to Launch a Subscription Box For Your Company

Neil Patel

They offer some of the best-known subscription boxes around, reflecting an increasingly popular (and potentially lucrative) business model. Why Should You Launch a Subscription Box? According to MarketsandMarkets , the subscription and recurring billing market will grow to around $7.8 billion by 2025.

article thumbnail

Clouded Judgement 7.21.23 - Are Software Companies Bad Businesses?

Clouded Judgement

In March 2015 the Morgan Stanley model predicted Box would generate $400m of FCF in 2025. If I look at the most recent Morgan Stanley research model (from May 2023), the current prediction for FCF in 2025 is $468m! Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 130
article thumbnail

We?re About To See a Lot More SaaS Debt

SaaStr

I argue that standard saas metrics make it possible for founders to scale using debt capital (production capital thats cheaper) instead of solely relying on venture capital (financial capital thats more expensive). . It’s hard to imagine a world where analysis didn’t understand recurring, subscription based revenue for technology products.

article thumbnail

How to Present an Operating Plan to your Board

Kellblog

2024 and 2025). While technically the board is only approving the proposed 2023 operating plan, that plan has a 2024 and 2025 model attached to it. The first slide is focused on the ARR leaky bucket, metrics derived from ARR, and ARR-related product.ivity measures. Slide 1: The Leaky Bucket of ARR and Related Metrics.

article thumbnail

A subscription burial

ProfitWell

And the question remains: Are subscription cars the future of transport? Your top subscription news. The movie ticket subscription service and its parent, Helios and Matheson Analytics, have both declared bankruptcy and will seek liquidation, unable to find a sustainable model for its discounted service. RIP MoviePass.".