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Clouded Judgement 3.22.24 - ERR vs ARR and the Conundrum of AI Revenue Streams Today

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) vs ERR (Experimental Runrate Revenue) ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is one of the most popular SaaS (Non-GAAP) metrics. Many investors laugh (and some rightly so) at the fact that software companies’ valuations are often described as a multiple of revenue.

AI 183
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How Quickly Does Headcount Scale in the Fastest Growing Software Businesses?

Tom Tunguz

Above, I’ve charted the headcount growth rate for 10 of the fastest growing software companies in recent history. I’ve normalized the years for when all the businesses were roughly at the same headcount - fewer than 50 people. This is a proxy for when the business established product market fit. They start around 25 people.

Headcount 168
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5 Interesting Learnings from Snowflake at $2.4 Billion in ARR

SaaStr

It’s one of the few still commanding a premium multiple in today’s world, and still growing at tremendous rates: Snowflake is also a barometer of everything in SaaS and Cloud, because a significant amount of its revenue is consumption-based, at least in part. AWS is seeing this, and so is Snowflake. Not none, just less.

Headcount 207
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Clouded Judgement 3.31.23

Clouded Judgement

The majority of COGS (revenue less COGS = gross profit) fall in hosting costs (ie AWS), and some customer support. If they don’t want to pay double the price, then Notion has a decision to make - do they sell the Notion AI SKU at a price that dilutes gross margins if it ends up generating more revenue? Top 5 Median: 11.4x

Cloud 130
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The Hardest Part About SaaS Companies, At Each Stage

SaaStr

But a few thoughts on “the hardest part” for the first few stages: From $1-$100k in ARR, the hardest part is often how little revenue you get from each customer. So much work, so little revenue. Enough to pay some salaries and AWS bills, but it’s not that much. You start making up for it in volume — with headcount.

SaaS 348
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Dear SaaStr: What is the Hardest Part About Starting a SaaS Company?

SaaStr

But a few thoughts on “the hardest part” for the first few stages: From $1-$100k in ARR, the hardest part is often how little revenue you get from each customer. So much work, so little revenue. Enough to pay some salaries and AWS bills, but it’s not that much. You start making up for it in volume — with headcount.

Headcount 228
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4 Traits of Fast-growing SaaS Companies

OpenView Labs

To find out which of these features are most common, OpenView surveyed over 500 SaaS companies ranging from pre-revenue to $100 million in ARR. All too often, companies omit certain acquisition costs, over-inflate recurring revenue by failing to strip out one-time revenue, and/or leave out some of the ongoing costs of serving a customer.