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The Capex Conquest in the Cloud

Tom Tunguz

Aside from the overall growth of these clouds increasing, the massive investment in CapEx data centers, power plants, and GPUs is stunning. Google and Microsoft would wait another two years to replicate a similar level of investment. Google and Microsoft would wait another two years to replicate a similar level of investment.

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Clouded Judgement 5.3.24 - Hyperscalers Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Reports

Clouded Judgement

We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). The most notable change in tone was Andy Jassy talking about AWS. This is for information purposes and should not be construed as an investment recommendation. Altimeter is an investment adviser registered with the U.S.

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Clouded Judgement 2.2.24 - Cloud Giants Report Q4 '23

Clouded Judgement

Amazon on AWS : “…customers are continuing to shift their focus towards driving innovation and bringing new workloads to the cloud. ” Microsoft on Azure : “And I think last quarter, we said one, we are going to continue to have these cycles where people will build new workloads. Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

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Cloud Stocks May Be Down. But the Cloud Remains on Fire. That Matters More.

SaaStr

So follow AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. And it is stressful, especially if you invested at those peaks or as founders raised money at relatively high valuations and multiples. Stock prices go up and down, inflation will come down, and interest rates won’t rise forever. If they stumble, we’re in for a rough patch.

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

This has all resulted in the median stock price declining 5% YTD. It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. What I’ve shown below is the market-adjusted stock price reaction.

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Clouded Judgement 4.28.23

Clouded Judgement

AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. Azure reported on Tuesday and gave us that glimmer of hope. Then AWS appeared to add fuel to that hope before giving us a huge rug pull. Azure came in at 31% (constant currency). They then guided to 26-27% Azure growth in Q2.

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