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The Critical Question Facing Web3 Infrastructure Startups

Tom Tunguz

One invoice. I would pay each product provider in their own token: one for storage, compute, caching/CDN, email subscription management, etc. Paying five decentralized providers in five different tokens means managing several wallets and monitoring token prices to hedge expenses. I paid for them each in US dollars every month.

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Clouded Judgement 5.3.24 - Hyperscalers Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Reports

Clouded Judgement

We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). The most notable change in tone was Andy Jassy talking about AWS. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

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Clouded Judgement 2.2.24 - Cloud Giants Report Q4 '23

Clouded Judgement

Amazon on AWS : “…customers are continuing to shift their focus towards driving innovation and bringing new workloads to the cloud. ” Microsoft on Azure : “And I think last quarter, we said one, we are going to continue to have these cycles where people will build new workloads. Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

This has all resulted in the median stock price declining 5% YTD. It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4.

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Clouded Judgement 4.28.23

Clouded Judgement

AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. Azure reported on Tuesday and gave us that glimmer of hope. Then AWS appeared to add fuel to that hope before giving us a huge rug pull. Azure came in at 31% (constant currency). They then guided to 26-27% Azure growth in Q2.

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Clouded Judgement 8.4.23 - Cloud Giants Q2 Update

Clouded Judgement

” These are two quotes about AWS on the Amazon earnings call. AWS grew 16% in Q1, but called out growth in April (first month of Q2) was 11%. You can see more detail about their net new ARR added each quarter below Azure Growth came in at 27%, and guided to 25-26% growth for Q3.

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