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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

All 3 (AWS, Azure, GCP) saw positive reacceleration Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

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Clouded Judgement 5.3.24 - Hyperscalers Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Reports

Clouded Judgement

We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. I created this subset to show companies where FCF is a relevant valuation metric.

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Clouded Judgement 8.4.23 - Cloud Giants Q2 Update

Clouded Judgement

Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Even a DCF is riddled with long term assumptions.

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Clouded Judgement 4.21.23

Clouded Judgement

Next week we get all 3 hyperscalers reporting (AWS from Amazon, Azure from Microsoft, and GCP from Google). Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Follow along to stay up to date! Let’s double click on Azure.

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Clouded Judgement 11.10.23 - OpenAI Updates + Datadog Gives the All-Clear?

Clouded Judgement

Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP as companies look for cloud GPUs who aren’t building out their own data centers) Infra (Data layer, orchestration, monitoring, ops, etc) Durable Applications We’ve clearly well underway of the first 3 layers monetizing. I created this subset to show companies where FCF is a relevant valuation metric.

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Clouded Judgement 10.28.22

Clouded Judgement

Hyperscalers Report Quarterly Earnings This week we saw AWS (Amazon), GCP (Google) and Azure (Microsoft) report earnings. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 8.11.23 - Datadog Consumption Trends

Clouded Judgement

The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) are seeing some uptick, but this is largely from selling compute (ie cloud GPUs). Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. However, it’s not showing up in the data yet.

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