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The Capex Conquest in the Cloud

Tom Tunguz

Cloud Capex in Q1 AWS $14 billion Azure $14 billion Google Cloud $12 billion These are not one-time investments, but part of a broader trend that started to occur after the introduction of GPT 3 in mid-2020 Amazon was the first to invest significantly. “Moving to AWS.

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Atlassian and AWS Say: “Maybe Worry a Little Bit”

SaaStr

Amazon/AWS and Atlassian both had huge Q2’s. But they also both warned of potential lower growth during the rest of 2020. But both Atlassian and Amazon/AWS said … Maybe Not As Much Going Forward, Not Forever. Azure and Google Cloud also saw growth begin to slow. This week there were 2 quiet flags.

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Gartner: Software Spend Will Grow 13.8% in 2024, to Over $1 Trillion For The First Time

SaaStr

Growth in public cloud services (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, Snowflake, etc.) Growth in public cloud services (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, Snowflake, etc.) As compared to late 2020 and 2021, when change was the name of the game. But it’s not that simple. The post Gartner: Software Spend Will Grow 13.8%

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Clouded Judgement 5.3.24 - Hyperscalers Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Reports

Clouded Judgement

We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). The most notable change in tone was Andy Jassy talking about AWS. This is lower than Q1 2020 (right at the onset of Covid) when everyone seemed to guide lower given the unknowns of Covid.

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Cloud Stocks May Be Down. But the Cloud Remains on Fire. That Matters More.

SaaStr

So follow AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Let’s look a whole level up to the real canaries-in-the-coalmine: AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. And AWS grew 37% at a $74B run-rate , down a bit from 39% the prior quarter but still adding an insane amount of new revenue. If they stumble, we’re in for a rough patch.

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. If you look at the historical data you’ll see there’s a very clear trendline through the end of 2020. This is the data point shown for Q4 ‘23.

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Clouded Judgement 10.20.23 - Hyperscaler Q3 Preview

Clouded Judgement

For context on a 10Y at 5% - from 2010 to 2020 the 10Y averaged roughly ~2.5%. Said another way, the 10Y today is double what it averaged from 2010 to 2020. Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud.

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