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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

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Clouded Judgement 2.2.24 - Cloud Giants Report Q4 '23

Clouded Judgement

Amazon on AWS : “…customers are continuing to shift their focus towards driving innovation and bringing new workloads to the cloud. ” Microsoft on Azure : “And I think last quarter, we said one, we are going to continue to have these cycles where people will build new workloads. Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 3.22.24 - ERR vs ARR and the Conundrum of AI Revenue Streams Today

Clouded Judgement

.” Let’s look at consumption revenue - this is also not technically recurring! It’s probably better described as re-occurring vs recurring. This is why the consumption players (Snowflake, Mongo, Confluent, Azure, AWS, etc) so more variability in the macro slowdown.

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Who are the real AI winners. It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4. net retention and CAC payback).

Cloud 177
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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

So far - you’re either tied to AI tailwinds, or it’s rough out there. And in the public universe, it’s really only been the hyperscalers who’ve benefited from AI. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

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Clouded Judgement 4.28.23

Clouded Judgement

AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. Azure reported on Tuesday and gave us that glimmer of hope. Then AWS appeared to add fuel to that hope before giving us a huge rug pull. Azure came in at 31% (constant currency). They then guided to 26-27% Azure growth in Q2.

Cloud 130
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Clouded Judgement 10.20.23 - Hyperscaler Q3 Preview

Clouded Judgement

Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. These are thought to be the early AI winners, largely due to all of the compute they’re selling to power GenAI applications.

Cloud 161