Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Clouded Judgement

MAY 10, 2024

After a strong finish in Q4, we saw a return to weaker demand conditions in the first quarter, similar to what we experienced in 2023. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Even a DCF is riddled with long term assumptions.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure 161

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 6, 2023

Cloud Downgrades This week UBS came out with a couple research reports citing concerns in AWS / Azure growth. As I’ve talked about before, the big risk for 2023 are fundamentals - are forward estimates too high? This brings me back to AWS / Azure downgrades. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Underperforming Technical Team 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 27, 2023

Azure (Microsoft) Quarter The week the first of the cloud giants reported - Azure. Early Look at 2023 Guides Given the Azure weakness reported on Tuesday, all software tumbled Wednesday morning with most names down 5-10%. A big reason for that was the guides for the full year 2023 we saw.

Cloud 141

Cloud Azure Pricing Subscription 141

Clouded Judgement

MAY 26, 2023

Azure / Confluent / Datadog reported a few weeks back (they all had March quarter ends), and their commentary suggested the worst was behind us. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against.

Cloud 141

Cloud Azure Trends Retention 141

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

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Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Revenue Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

A 2023 recession feels less likely, with 2024 being the more realistic timing if we do in fact get to a deeper recession. From the S&P to software, consensus was 2023 estimates were too high, and set to fall meaningfully. Let’s imagine a world where we don’t have a recession in 2023. The market was offsides.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Generative AI 130