Clouded Judgement
MAY 3, 2024
We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). This is lower than Q1 2020 (right at the onset of Covid) when everyone seemed to guide lower given the unknowns of Covid. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).
Clouded Judgement
APRIL 11, 2024
It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. If you look at the historical data you’ll see there’s a very clear trendline through the end of 2020. This is the data point shown for Q4 ‘23.
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Clouded Judgement
OCTOBER 20, 2023
For context on a 10Y at 5% - from 2010 to 2020 the 10Y averaged roughly ~2.5%. Said another way, the 10Y today is double what it averaged from 2010 to 2020. Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud.
Clouded Judgement
MAY 26, 2023
Azure / Confluent / Datadog reported a few weeks back (they all had March quarter ends), and their commentary suggested the worst was behind us. In 2020 and 2021, it was growth at all costs and the mentality was let it rip. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.
Clouded Judgement
NOVEMBER 3, 2023
This growth adjusted premium also comes at a time when the 10Y is nearly double what it was from 2010 to 2020. Maybe with the exception of hyperscalers (particularly Azure). Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).
Clouded Judgement
JUNE 20, 2023
On the Microsoft earnings call they said (related to Azure): “But at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further. To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4. My interpretation is we’re in the bottoming phase.
SaaStr
MARCH 31, 2022
What you’ll see in that cloud spend box is actually Gartner’s 2020 estimate for infrastructure as a service spending for companies, which was $50 billion. And IDG just recently released the 2020 Cloud Computing Survey that showed over one third of IT budgets are spent on cloud computing technologies.
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