Clouded Judgement

MAY 31, 2024

” As growth starts to slow, it gets harder and harder to justify using revenue multiples as a primary valuation metric. AI Investment Cycle Picking Up - Companies are (rightfully) investing in building out their capabilities around AI. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

Cloud 177

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) AI 177

Clouded Judgement

MAY 10, 2024

And no one raised full year guide >2% The median “beat” (Q1 revenue over Q1 consensus estimates) was 1.5%, which is the lowest it’s been in the last 4 years Overall, it’s been a TOUGH quarter for software companies. So far - you’re either tied to AI tailwinds, or it’s rough out there.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure 161

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 10, 2023

When I think about the monetization of AI (and which “layers” monetize first) I’ve always thought it would follow the below order, with each layer lagging the one that comes before it. Model providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc as companies start building out AI). 2024 will be the year of AI applications!

Cloud 183

Cloud Artificial Intelligence AI GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 183

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 11, 2023

While the overall median revenue multiple of the software universe is ~6x (which is ~25% below the long term average of ~8x), high growth software is currently trading at a premium to it’s long term average (9.4x And everyone hoping for AI acceleration will need to wait. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

Cloud 130

Cloud Trends Azure GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

JULY 28, 2023

AI = Data + Compute I’ll continue beating this drum, but we got two great quotes from Azure and AWS this week. Satya at Microsoft said “Every AI app starts with data and having a comprehensive data and analytics platform is more important than ever.” This could be a trend of improving buyer dynamics?

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130