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The Capex Conquest in the Cloud

Tom Tunguz

Cloud Capex in Q1 AWS $14 billion Azure $14 billion Google Cloud $12 billion These are not one-time investments, but part of a broader trend that started to occur after the introduction of GPT 3 in mid-2020 Amazon was the first to invest significantly. Each of these businesses are large enough to justify it. “Moving to AWS.

Cloud 295
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We End the Year at All-Time Lows for SaaS Growth. A Buying Signal — Or The End of an Era?

SaaStr

And broader Cloud players had great years too, from MongoDB to Cloudflare to Azure, if not quite as crazy as at the peak of 2021. So there is plenty of reason for at least modest optimism for 2024.: And Gartner still predicts overall Cloud spend will grow to record rates in 2024. I’m betting that’s not 2024-2026.

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. If we break this down and look at Azure and AWS independently (graphs below), you’ll see how the AWS “swings” were a lot more volatile.

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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

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Snow Angels Come Early to Data : Snowflake's Strength Spells Success for Startups

Tom Tunguz

“Q3 product revenue grew 34% year-over-year to reach $698 million. “Yes, we actually saw quite a bit of energy coming from the Azure platform this quarter. ” For startups operating within data, which tops buyers’ lists , this news further signals a stronger market in 2024.

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Clouded Judgement 4.28.23

Clouded Judgement

AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. Azure reported on Tuesday and gave us that glimmer of hope. Azure : Coming into the quarter, a growth rate that would have satisfied the market would have been ~29%. Azure came in at 31% (constant currency). Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 11.3.23 - No Sign of Re-Acceleration in Software

Clouded Judgement

Pure revenue multiples are trading at a 31% discount to their long term average (5.4x Said another way, I believe that software valuations were holding up so well in the face of a ~5% 10Y because the market expected acceleration and 2024 numbers to come up. Maybe with the exception of hyperscalers (particularly Azure).