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Pilot: 57% of Venture Startups Will Need to Raise More In 2024

SaaStr

Something that’s both not surprising but also pretty impactful: 57% of venture-backed startups will have to go “back to market” in 2024 to raise more capital. And realistically, most won’t have the metrics to pull off another round. But many will find 2024, those stretches have stretched as far as they can.

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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Through these interactions, I’ve built up mental benchmarks for metrics on which I place extra emphasis. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g., This metric is more self-explanatory, so I won’t go into detail.

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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

All 3 (AWS, Azure, GCP) saw positive reacceleration Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

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Clouded Judgement 4.28.23

Clouded Judgement

AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. Azure reported on Tuesday and gave us that glimmer of hope. Then AWS appeared to add fuel to that hope before giving us a huge rug pull. Azure came in at 31% (constant currency). They then guided to 26-27% Azure growth in Q2.

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Clouded Judgement 4.21.23

Clouded Judgement

Next week we get all 3 hyperscalers reporting (AWS from Amazon, Azure from Microsoft, and GCP from Google). Let’s double click on Azure. On AWS, in their Q4 earnings call they said AWS was growing “mid teens” in January (down from 20% in Q4). The Q4 ‘22 growth rate was 38% YoY.

Cloud 130
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Clouded Judgement 2.3.23

Clouded Judgement

A 2023 recession feels less likely, with 2024 being the more realistic timing if we do in fact get to a deeper recession. Meanwhile, more growth oriented indexes like WCLD rallied hard I do want to finish with this – we very well could have a recession, and a bad one, in 2024. Lots of deceleration in growth.

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