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Clouded Judgement 5.3.24 - Hyperscalers Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Reports

Clouded Judgement

We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

All 3 (AWS, Azure, GCP) saw positive reacceleration Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months. Securities and Exchange Commission.

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Clouded Judgement 5.31.24 - Software Sentiment Crumbles

Clouded Judgement

This can lead to an airpocket of valuation as companies transition to a different primary valuation metric Outside of the hypserscalers (Azure, AWS, GCP) who have uniquely benefited from AI revenue (mainly selling compute), everyone else has largely struggled. But these investments aren’t cheap.

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Clouded Judgement 8.4.23 - Cloud Giants Q2 Update

Clouded Judgement

You can see more detail about their net new ARR added each quarter below Azure Growth came in at 27%, and guided to 25-26% growth for Q3. That means we very well could see 27% be the bottom for them as well (assuming they beat their guidance). Then Q2 came in at 12% (must have seen improvements throughout the quarter).

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Clouded Judgement 10.28.22

Clouded Judgement

Hyperscalers Report Quarterly Earnings This week we saw AWS (Amazon), GCP (Google) and Azure (Microsoft) report earnings. At the same time, Azure came in below expectations. Azure called out an incremental $800m of costs expected throughout the year (they just finished their Fiscal Q1).

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Clouded Judgement 4.21.23

Clouded Judgement

Next week we get all 3 hyperscalers reporting (AWS from Amazon, Azure from Microsoft, and GCP from Google). Let’s double click on Azure. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

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