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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. If we break this down and look at Azure and AWS independently (graphs below), you’ll see how the AWS “swings” were a lot more volatile.

Cloud 177
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Clouded Judgement 6.9.23 - Recap of Consumption Trends in Q1 '23

Clouded Judgement

Very healthy new business (new customer) acquisition. Usage on Snowflake is driven by queries run on Snowflake Azure: Neutral Tone With Strength in AI Overall I’d characterize Azure’s quarter as a net positive. They guided to 26-27% growth in Azure in Q2 (with 1% coming from AI).

Trends 130
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Clouded Judgement 3.22.24 - ERR vs ARR and the Conundrum of AI Revenue Streams Today

Clouded Judgement

For SaaS businesses that target smaller SMB customer segments, gross retention is typically in the mid to low 80’s with net expansion in the ~105% range. And once a customer has paid back the initial acquisitions costs to acquire it, all future streams of revenue can loosely be described as a cash flow annuity.

AI 183
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A Look Back at Q1 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

On the Microsoft earnings call they said (related to Azure): “But at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further. For businesses selling predominantly to SMB customers, these benchmarks are all slightly lower given the higher-churn nature of SMBs. My interpretation is we’re in the bottoming phase.

Cloud 161