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The Capex Conquest in the Cloud

Tom Tunguz

Aside from the overall growth of these clouds increasing, the massive investment in CapEx data centers, power plants, and GPUs is stunning. Google and Microsoft would wait another two years to replicate a similar level of investment. Google and Microsoft would wait another two years to replicate a similar level of investment.

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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. If we break this down and look at Azure and AWS independently (graphs below), you’ll see how the AWS “swings” were a lot more volatile.

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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

All 3 (AWS, Azure, GCP) saw positive reacceleration Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months. Securities and Exchange Commission.

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Clouded Judgement 11.3.23 - No Sign of Re-Acceleration in Software

Clouded Judgement

Said another way, I believe that software valuations were holding up so well in the face of a ~5% 10Y because the market expected acceleration and 2024 numbers to come up. Maybe with the exception of hyperscalers (particularly Azure). This is for information purposes and should not be construed as an investment recommendation.

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Clouded Judgement 4.28.23

Clouded Judgement

AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. Azure reported on Tuesday and gave us that glimmer of hope. Azure : Coming into the quarter, a growth rate that would have satisfied the market would have been ~29%. Azure came in at 31% (constant currency). Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 4.21.23

Clouded Judgement

Next week we get all 3 hyperscalers reporting (AWS from Amazon, Azure from Microsoft, and GCP from Google). Let’s double click on Azure. ” They anticipate Q1 will be the peak pressure on cloud spend, and we may see a re-acceleration heading into 2024. Q1 Earnings Season We’re on the eve of Q1 earning season.

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