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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

Who are the real AI winners. It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4. net retention and CAC payback).

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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

So far - you’re either tied to AI tailwinds, or it’s rough out there. And in the public universe, it’s really only been the hyperscalers who’ve benefited from AI. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

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Clouded Judgement 4.28.23

Clouded Judgement

AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. Azure reported on Tuesday and gave us that glimmer of hope. Azure : Coming into the quarter, a growth rate that would have satisfied the market would have been ~29%. Azure came in at 31% (constant currency). Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 11.10.23 - OpenAI Updates + Datadog Gives the All-Clear?

Clouded Judgement

When I think about the monetization of AI (and which “layers” monetize first) I’ve always thought it would follow the below order, with each layer lagging the one that comes before it. Model providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc as companies start building out AI). 2024 will be the year of AI applications!

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Clouded Judgement 8.11.23 - Datadog Consumption Trends

Clouded Judgement

If next quarter we get similar commentary that Azure gave us this quarter (“still a couple quarters away” without any specific guidance), then we may see market loose a little patience. And everyone hoping for AI acceleration will need to wait. The question is how patient will they be waiting for this?

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Clouded Judgement 2.3.23

Clouded Judgement

We have companies like BuzzFeed and C3 making loose announcements about how they will incorporate generative AI into their business, sending their stocks up 50-100%+. A 2023 recession feels less likely, with 2024 being the more realistic timing if we do in fact get to a deeper recession. Lots of deceleration in growth.

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