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Signs We've Touched the Bottom

Tom Tunguz

Both Google & Microsoft announced growth rates in GCP & Azure that held steady from one quarter to the next. There are two forces in tension : overall cost reduction efforts by companies & the desire to invest in AI. The desire for AI is broad. The acceleration is really quite broad.

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Clouded Judgement 5.3.24 - Hyperscalers Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Reports

Clouded Judgement

We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

All 3 (AWS, Azure, GCP) saw positive reacceleration Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

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Clouded Judgement 8.4.23 - Cloud Giants Q2 Update

Clouded Judgement

You can see more detail about their net new ARR added each quarter below Azure Growth came in at 27%, and guided to 25-26% growth for Q3. That means we very well could see 27% be the bottom for them as well (assuming they beat their guidance). Then Q2 came in at 12% (must have seen improvements throughout the quarter).

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Clouded Judgement 10.28.22

Clouded Judgement

Hyperscalers Report Quarterly Earnings This week we saw AWS (Amazon), GCP (Google) and Azure (Microsoft) report earnings. At the same time, Azure came in below expectations. Azure called out an incremental $800m of costs expected throughout the year (they just finished their Fiscal Q1).

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Clouded Judgement 4.21.23

Clouded Judgement

Next week we get all 3 hyperscalers reporting (AWS from Amazon, Azure from Microsoft, and GCP from Google). Let’s double click on Azure. Q1 Earnings Season We’re on the eve of Q1 earning season. The Q4 ‘22 growth rate was 38% YoY. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

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Clouded Judgement 7.28.23 - Optimization Cycles and Economy Update

Clouded Judgement

AI = Data + Compute I’ll continue beating this drum, but we got two great quotes from Azure and AWS this week. Satya at Microsoft said “Every AI app starts with data and having a comprehensive data and analytics platform is more important than ever.” ” Data is more important than ever! AWS reports next week.

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