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Bonus Clouded Judgement 6.5.23 - Upcoming Liquidity Crunch?

Clouded Judgement

Liquidity Liquidity drives markets, and is a term we’ve all heard many times over the last few years. TLDR - the recent debt ceiling deal may actually pose a drain on liquidity (in addition to ongoing QT) as the government sells T Bills to refill the Treasury General Account (this starts today!). Very open to feedback!

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Clouded Judgement 9.29.23 - Rates Keep Going Up

Clouded Judgement

The current median growth adjusted multiple is 0.39x which is actually greater than the long term average pre-covid of 0.28x (so 40% higher!). The government is going through quite a bit of quantitative tightening. Even a DCF is riddled with long term assumptions. Altimeter is an investment adviser registered with the U.S.

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Five Mid-Year Predictions for Web3

Tom Tunguz

AAA gaming titles arrive two to three years later because of their development lifecycles and studio risk aversion to invest tens of millions into a new platform. VCs revel in the short term liquidity reminiscent of the late 1990s when startups went public in fewer than 4 years. Money pours into web3. Regulation.

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An Insider’s Guide to Convertible Debt vs. Equity

SaaStr

All that matters is investing in great companies at a fair, stage-appropriate price, right? I’d made a relatively small ($800k) convertible debt investment in a company, and the VC that led the next round then rewrote many of the terms. The investment still ended up being very profitable. I mean, whatever, right?

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What is a Merchant Cash Advance and is MCA Right for You?

Stax

In an ideal world, every business would have enough cash flow to stay afloat in the short term and allow the owner to focus on long-term goals. Small business loans exist to allow business owners to prop up their businesses in the short term and cover temporary cash flow gaps. Is this financing option worth considering?

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Clouded Judgement 8.25.23 - The Ground Truth of the 10Y and Interest Rates

Clouded Judgement

I won’t go into all of the detail here, but the TLDR is that as the government bank account (the TGA) has shrunk, government debt has also ballooned - the implication is that the government will have to raise money in order to pay off the interest expense on their debt (as well as fund other obligations).

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In the Vault: Placing Multiple Bets on a ‘Mosaic of Solutions’ With Former Global Payments CEO Jeff Sloan

Andreessen Horowitz

Then I went into banking, specifically investment banking in the early ’90s. What areas in both technology investing as well as distribution or sales do we really need a bolster to really take the company to the next level?” Think about the ascendancy of the cloud in terms of technology environments.