Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Hard Landing? Soft Landing? No Landing? There’s a lot of talk about whether we’re headed to a deeper recession (hard landing) or a soft landing (light or no recession). And more recently there’s even talk about “no landing.” Hard Landing: This would be a recession. How would this outcome play out?

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Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 268

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 11, 2024

The 62 companies that I’ll discuss here (which is not an exhaustive list, but is still comprehensive) all reported quarterly earnings sometime between Jan 24th – March 27th. In this post, I’ll take a data-driven approach in evaluating the overall group’s performance, and highlight individual standouts along the way.

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Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

It’s actually the complete opposite - there will be more deceleration in Q4 (according to guides). It’s actually the complete opposite - there will be more deceleration in Q4 (according to guides). Q4 guides have painted a pretty stark picture. And the median guide is 0.4% Pretty significant!

Software Review 161

Software Review Cloud Software Azure 161

Clouded Judgement

MAY 12, 2023

Of those, 20 companies guided Q2 above consensus (53%), and 18 guided below consensus. In Q4 90% of companies beat consensus estimates (so same as Q1), but only 44% guided ahead of consensus. So we’re seeing a slightly more positive trend in the number of companies guiding above consensus.

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Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 27, 2023

Their guide was for 37% growth, but all the commentary they had made since last quarter was quite negative on the optimization environment, so expectations for the quarter were more like 35% growth, and bears were calling for closer to 33%. Given the beat in Q4, a guide of 30-31% growth in Q1 was a big disappointment.

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Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 11, 2023

They narrowly beat estimates for Q2, and then guided Q3 below consensus. On top of that, they took down their full year guide by 2% from where they guided after Q1. Another way to look at this is despiteh Q2 coming in above their guide, they took down their full year guide. On the surface, it wasn’t good.

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Cloud Trends Azure GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 24, 2023

The end result was the expected result prior to the banking crisis - a 25bps hike 2023 Full Year Guides We’re nearly through Q4 ‘22 earnings season. The end result was the expected result prior to the banking crisis - a 25bps hike 2023 Full Year Guides We’re nearly through Q4 ‘22 earnings season.

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User Pilot

JANUARY 16, 2024

Whether you're a complete novice out for beginner lessons or a veteran in search of expert-level knowledge, you'll find the right books for you. and the author's signature witty humor to keep you engaged. About the author Joel Marsh is a user experience design veteran with over 20 years of experience.

User Experience 99

User Experience Systems Review Consulting Strategy 99

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 9, 2023

They guided to 26-27% growth in Azure in Q2 (with 1% coming from AI). Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now Consumption Trends We’re now through earning season. Is there any incremental signal on consumption trends reversing?

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Trends Cloud Azure AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

As we get to Q4 earning season and companies guide for the first time for the full year 2024, I think we may get bigger moves as clarity emerges around “are 2024 estimates too high or too low? In just the last couple weeks from mid December to today we’ve seen the 10Y move from 3.8% And if they go down, stocks tend to go down!

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FastSpring

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

With this latest version of our FastSpring welcome dashboard, we’ve implemented user guides in-app to help users achieve four goals: Create a product or subscription Explore Storefronts Explore Developer Tools Go Live! If you want to know more about FastSpring, reach out to our sales team for a demo , or try it yourself.

Payment Methods 142

Payment Methods Payment Solutions Payments User Experience 142

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 2, 2023

Forget the outlook / guide for a minute. I haven’t listened to Mongo’s earnings call yet, but their guide implied back half strength. While they added only ~$26m of net new ARR in Q1 (down significantly from the last 4 quarters), their guide for Q2 implied closer to ~$130m of net new ARR in Q2!

Cloud 130

Cloud Trends SMB Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 21, 2023

However, they called out a growth rate of mid 30’s in December, and guided to 30-31% YoY growth in Q1. What I’ll be watching closely is who re-affirms their guide from 3 months ago, vs who lowers (or raises) the full year guide. Let’s double click on Azure. The Q4 ‘22 growth rate was 38% YoY.

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Clouded Judgement

MAY 5, 2023

Now that we have one more quarter of data, how are companies full year guides changing? The chart below shows how full year guides changed from Q4 to Q1 (I’ve only included companies who guided the full calendar year). Early Learnings from Q1 Reports Another big week of software learnings. When do we see a reacceleration?

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Cloud Construction Trends Revenue 130

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 21, 2023

The 63 companies that I’ll discuss here (which is not an exhaustive list, but is still comprehensive) all reported quarterly earnings sometime between October 25th – December 7th. In this post, I’ll take a data-driven approach in evaluating the overall group’s performance, and highlight individual standouts along the way.

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 177

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Let’s also look at the guide for next quarter. Azure guided to 26-27% Azure growth, “with increasing contribution from AI.” If next quarter it’s 4%, then the implied guide for Azure ex AI is more like 22-23%. Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 23, 2022

As I’ve said many times before, in 2023 the focus for software valuations will completely shift from interest rates (and multiples) to fundamentals. Weak Q4 guides in Q3. In Q3, only 47% of companies guided Q4 above consensus, and the median Q4 guide was actually (0.1%) below Q4 consensus. 3% above consensus.

Cloud 130

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Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

They guided this year below expectations at ~3% YoY growth. On average, companies are guiding in line with where consensus estimates were to start the year Multiples Check In The current median NTM revenue multiple for cloud software companies is 5.9x, and the current 10Y is 3.9%. More discretionary items didn’t do quite as well.

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Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 130

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 17, 2023

Walmart missed their guide and saw their stock drop ~10%. There’s generally two reasons rates will fall: 1) A belief inflation is falling and higher rates are no longer needed to curb inflation back to the 2% target. 2) Economic growth slowing (ie recession) and rates need to be lowered to stimulate the economy. ” song.

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Clouded Judgement

MARCH 3, 2023

3 months ago they guided to 47% growth for 2023. The red dot is what they’re guided to for the full year 2023 growth (which means the quarterly YoY growth in Q4 ‘23 would be lower than the red dot which is at 24% ). So far, the data is looking more like Hypothesis B. So far, the data is looking more like Hypothesis B.

Cloud 141

Cloud Forecasting Subscription Payment Features 141

Clouded Judgement

MAY 26, 2023

As such, they REDUCED their full year guide from 40% growth to 34% growth (a drop of ~$100m in expected revenue for the year) There were some positive data points: Number of queries actually grew 57% YoY (product rev grew 50% YoY). This means we got commentary for the first time on May trends. Only time will tell. I don't think it will last.

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Cloud Azure Trends Retention 141

Tom Tunguz

DECEMBER 29, 2021

He recasts his syllabus into this page by page dissection of four of the greatest Russian writers' short stories, a tour guide illustrating how these geniuses weave wonderful worlds and evoke emotions in few words. Phillipe Laffont tweeted this is one of his two favorite books; Mindset completing the pair. A Swim in a Pond in the Rain.

Government 269

Government Finance Engineering Innovation 269

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Generally there’s a cushion baked into guidance, so more likely than not Crowdstrike will end up preforming better than what they’ve guided to (but again, maybe recession cuts deeper and there’s further cuts to come). Then again - Snowflake had a very bullish 2023 guide. A beautiful combination! When will that happen?

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Cloud Forecasting Software Review Revenue 130

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 20, 2023

More companies guided above consensus, and the median guide ticked back up >0% above consensus. The 63 companies that I’ll discuss here (which is not an exhaustive list, but is still comprehensive) all reported quarterly earnings sometime between April 2th – June 8th. net retention and CAC payback).

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Benchmarks Scale 161

User Pilot

MARCH 29, 2024

Use social proof to build brand authority. Repair tips for bottom-of-the-funnel leaks: Use interactive onboarding to guide new users. This article reveals the major causes of funnel leaks at each customer journey stage and how to fix them. Sales funnel leaks happen at the top, middle, and bottom of the funnel. Lack of help resources.

Scale 103

Scale Sales Funnel Onboarding Retention 103

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2023

At the same time, forward guides are also weakening. Less than half of the software universe is guiding above consensus, and the median guide has gone from ~2.5% Said another way - despite weak guides, companies aren’t beating estimates The natural question - when will the market improve?

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Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 23, 2023

In Q1 consumption picked up - and in their guide for Q2 and rest of year they suggested this may continue. Very interesting trend to monitor, and kudos to the Mongo team for sharing this level of detail Quarterly Metrics Trends We’re now through Q1 earnings season. Let’s start with growth.

Trends 130

Trends Cloud Retention Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

They’d been more macro resilient than most, but their weak guide plus acknowledgement of macro headwinds spooked the market. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. Hard to say.

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Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 11, 2022

To put some numbers on the weakness we’re seeing - the median guide for Q4 is currently 0.2% To put some numbers on the weakness we’re seeing - the median guide for Q4 is currently 0.2% I don’t ever remember a time where guides across the board were this weak. Follow along to stay up to date! and actual was 0.4%

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Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 28, 2023

They then guided to 26-27% Azure growth in Q2. Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Hyperscalers Report - With a Massive Headfake! AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. This week was a roller coaster.

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Cloud Azure AWS AI Search 130

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 4, 2023

You can see more detail about their net new ARR added each quarter below Azure Growth came in at 27%, and guided to 25-26% growth for Q3. ” These are two quotes about AWS on the Amazon earnings call. We’ve all been waiting for cloud optimizations to ease up, and this is our clearest signal that we’re getting there.

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Cloud Azure Cost optimization & reporting AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

However, they guided for 2023 and called for 23-24% growth. It seems like the incremental data we’ve gotten continue to increase the odds of a “no landing.” ” I won’t rehash all of the details of a no-landing. ” The most difficult part of this is getting to the all-clear phase. What does all of this mean?

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Revenue Subscription 130

Clouded Judgement

JULY 14, 2023

Here’s where things shock out: Headline Inflation: 3.0% consensus) and 0.2% consensus) Core Inflation: 4.8% consensus) and 0.2% consensus) Overall, inflation came in lighter than expected. This was a positive data point that adds more credibility to a potential soft landing. The faster inflation falls, the faster we may see rate cuts.

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Cloud Metrics Scale Software 130

Stax

APRIL 18, 2024

To help you do that, we’ve put together the ultimate guide. They often provide services such as authorization, clearing, and settlement. They often provide services such as authorization, clearing, and settlement. Accepting credit card transactions is no longer a decision of whether to but rather how to.

Merchant Services 88

Merchant Services Payment Services Payment Methods Payment Solutions 88

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Median Q4 guidance raise: 0.0% (50% guided above consensus, 50% guided below consensus) Looking back historically the median beat across the entire universe each quarter was in the 4-4.5% Prior to Wednesday, the consensus was a 75bps hike in November, 50bps hike in December, and 25bps hike in January. A couple things stood out.

Cloud 130

Cloud Pricing Revenue Subscription 130

Stax

APRIL 18, 2024

According to Forbes , “mobile payments are increasingly being used by U.S. shoppers as customers become more comfortable with the technology.” Not only are there a number of ways your customers could be using their mobile devices to give payments, but you as a business owner could be leveraging mobile devices to accept them as well.

Payment Services 88

Payment Services Merchant Services Payment Methods Payment Solutions 88

FastSpring

SEPTEMBER 1, 2021

Thailand recently published a guide that provides information on a host of compliance-related topics such as VAT filing and payment, validation of VAT numbers, and the use of foreign exchange (FX) sources. You can read more about Thailand’s VAT on Electronic Services in the official guide. What are Thailand’s VAT rates for E-Services?

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