Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 21, 2023

Q3 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Subscribe now Is Software Rebounding? Commentary from the cloud providers seems to be that the major macro headwinds around optimizations and new deal scrutiny have started to abate. ” 3 months later, what happened to those green shoots?

Cloud 177

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 177

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Are Software Companies Over or Undervalued? Today I wanted to dig in to this question and its implications: “Are software companies fairly valued today?” Follow along to stay up to date!

Software Review 183

Software Review Cloud Software Revenue 183

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q4 ‘23 Two quotes from the Amazon and Microsoft earnings call really stood out to me this week. Sometimes they’re classic cloud migrations. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cost optimization & reporting 161

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 161

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 1, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 311

Cloud AI Investment Metrics 311

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Software Setup Currently, interest rates seem to be the primary driver of software valuations. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Software Review 130

Software Review Cloud Software AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 16, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Growth Adjusted Software Multiples The last 6 weeks (since the start of May) has been quite the run for software companies. I’m using the period of 2010+ given that’s really when cloud software came about.

Cloud 130

Cloud Software Revenue Subscription 130

SaaStr

SEPTEMBER 14, 2020

In case u missed @SaaStrAnnual State of the Cloud w @bdeeter @TheValuesVC. ??Future Cloud proliferating globally ??B2B This will usher in unlimited potential for new innovation and growth in SaaS and Cloud. # 2 Cloud is Eating Software. The astonishing fact is: cloud is eating software.

Technical Review 291

Technical Review Cloud Software Review Technology 291

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Some of these drops rival one of the worst ever software earnings reaction of Tableau in 2016! On Thursday the software index (WCLD) was up ~3%! So what’s holding up software stocks valuations?? Atlassian was down ~10%.

Software Review 161

Software Review Cloud Software Azure 161

Clouded Judgement

MAY 17, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment in March) April CPI MoM +0.3%

Cloud 152

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 152

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. I pulled some data from Pitchbook that you can see below (screen was for US based companies that they categorize as “software”). Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 284

Cloud Venture Capital Acquisition Metrics 284

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 15, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 161

Tom Tunguz

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Yesterday, both Google and Microsoft announced their earnings for their cloud businesses. ” Both Google & Microsoft have announced Copilot for security products, features that other security vendors including Cisco are developing, uggesting this may be the next vertical to grow from AI after content generation & legal software.

AI Search 291

AI Search AI Cloud Azure 291

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. I believe one of the bigger reasons software has held up despite the run up in the 10Y to 5% is the expectation for re-acceleration (ie numbers / forecasts going up). Quite different then the expectation for acceleration in software in 2024.

Cost optimization & reporting 152

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 152

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Revisiting the “Is Software Expensive” Question The current median revenue multiple for the software universe is 6.4x, which is ~17% below the long term average multiple of 7.8x.

Cloud 177

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Metrics 177

Clouded Judgement

JULY 21, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Are Software Companies Bad Businesses? There was some talk last week on the All-In podcast about software companies. The gold standard for all public software companies is GAAP net income in the fullness of time.

Cloud 130

Cloud Software Sales Hiring Scale 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 5, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 10Y Rising The start of the year has not been kind to software stocks! In the basket I track and discuss in Clouded Judgement (~80 companies), no one is up on the year. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 152

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 152

Tom Tunguz

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

I’m watching public company earnings to identify early weaknesses in the software market. Google: [We] are pushing Google Cloud to Profitability. One surprising nuance from the Google call: Revenue growth in GCP was again greater than Google Cloud, reflecting strength in both infrastructure and platform services.

GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 282

GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Cloud AWS Sales Hiring 282

SaaStr

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

And yes, I know we can argue Databricks is neither really Cloud nor really SaaS. I’d argue that doesn’t much matter — its comparables are the Cloud and SaaS leaders). Canva image from here ) The post Canva and Databricks: The Two Big Potential SaaS / Cloud IPOs of 2024 appeared first on SaaStr.

Cloud 276

Cloud SaaS Enterprise Branding 276

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Growth Deceleration of Consumption Companies So far, 2023 guides have not been pretty for consumption software companies. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 244

Cloud Trends Subscription Payment Features 244

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now 2023 Top Performers In 2023, there were 14 cloud software companies that were up 100%+ this year (in the index I track of ~80 total)! Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 189

Cloud Software Review Subscription Payment Features 189

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Is this a sign that software headwinds have bottomed? Amazon and Snowflake have both made comments recently that Cloud Optimizations are starting to play second fiddle to net new workload growth. Follow along to stay up to date!

AWS 293

AWS Cloud AI Search Cost optimization & reporting 293

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 20, 2023

Q1 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. The question on everyone’s mind - when will we see software re-accelerate? The real headwinds to software (tougher expansion, longer sales cycles / procurement, slower new business, budget crunches / RIFs, etc) started last August.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Benchmarks Scale 161

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

Q2 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. As you can see from the data below most cloud businesses beat the consensus estimates for Q2 Source: company filings and Pitchbook consensus estimates Historically, the median beat of consensus estimates is closer to ~4%.

Cloud 169

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 169

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 19, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The right way to view Rubrik is really more of a high growth software business growing >40%. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date! NTM revenue multiple.

Cloud 141

Cloud Scale Subscription Payment Features 141

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. ” Were 2023 Software Estimates Already De-Risked To Start The Year? Another topic I’ve discussed at length here is the question of “are forward estimates too high” for software companies. Hard Landing?

Cloud 268

Cloud Software Review Technical Review Systems Review 268

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 8, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Either way - they ended up performing much better than their initial guide, and ultimately their stock was one of the top preforming software companies in 2023 (they were up >100%). Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment

Cloud 161

Cloud Revenue Subscription Payment Features 161

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. The second part is a nuanced point - the median cloud software stock is down 2% year-to-date. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date! So the 2024 guides would be supportive of that.

Cloud 152

Cloud Metrics Revenue Subscription 152

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2023

Q4 earnings season for cloud businesses is now behind us. Less than half of the software universe is guiding above consensus, and the median guide has gone from ~2.5% As you can see from the data below most cloud businesses beat the consensus estimates for Q4. Some software companies also have seasonality in the “payback.”

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Benchmarks Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 12, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. What’s maybe most interesting about the rise in the 10Y is the relatively little impact it’s had on software valuations. The average YTD performance of my index of ~80 software companies is only down 5%.

Cloud 141

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Revenue 141

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 14, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Net New ARR Slowdown It’s no secret that cloud software businesses have seen headwinds over the last couple quarters. Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date! Their takeaway?

Cloud 169

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Trends 169

Tom Tunguz

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

My laptop is faster than your cloud. Instead of requiring a scale-out database in the sky, most analyses are faster with an optimized database on your computer that can leverage the cloud when needed. Third, DuckDB can be embedded in software. But most workloads aren’t massive. Second, DuckDB is fast.

Cloud 338

Cloud AWS Data Analysis Benchmarks 338

SaaStr

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

Discover Bessemer Venture Partners’s annual State of the Cloud report, going through trends, benchmarks, and metrics that underpin the Cloud economy. The past twelve months have been relatively turbulent for Cloud founders. What does this mean for Cloud companies? What does this mean for Cloud companies?

Cloud 232

Cloud Payments Software Review Payment Solutions 232

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 9, 2024

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. After a few software companies have reported we can start to look at the data behind “are numbers going up.” Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 195

Cloud Pricing Startup Revenue 195

Clouded Judgement

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Q3 ‘23 Earnings Summary Preview The vast majority of all software companies have now reported Q3. Let’s see if this trend continues in Q4, but I think we’re starting to get to the end of the software recession.

Cloud 161

Cloud Software Review Headcount Trends 161

SaaStr

MAY 6, 2024

My biggest take-away: there are barely more than 50 acquisitions of $50,000,000 or more, at least disclosed one, in software of U.S.-based But for founders, the bigger take away is that over the past decade, the amount of software M&A isn’t going up, even as the number of SaaS startups has exploded. By dollars, yes.

Acquisition 213

Acquisition Software Review Software Cloud 213

Clouded Judgement

MAY 19, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Reflections on Software Performance in Q1 Software stocks have enjoyed quite the run this year. Medium and high growth software companies have seen a median stock price performance this year of 21% and 26% respectively.

Cloud 161

Cloud Subscription Payment Features Retention 161

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 4, 2023

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Cloud Giants Update “What we're seeing in the quarter is that those cost optimizations, while still going on, are moderating and many maybe behind us in some of our large customers. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Cost optimization & reporting AWS 130