So Harry Stebbings and I got back together for the first 20VC of 2024!
- Will IPO windows open in 2024?
- Will Stripe and Databricks go public?
- Did Figma kill the M&A market in 2024?
- Will LPs allocate to new venture managers?
- Will many venture firms slowly die?
This is the ultimate show with Jason M. Lemkin, Founder SaaStr on what the f*** happens in 2024 with many predictions…
1. Will IPO Windows Open in 2024?
2024 will be the year of “we might as well go public”.
Klaviyo, Arm and Instacart were all muted IPOs.
2024 will be the third year of a multiple downturn.
Many will pull the chord and say, we have to do it.
2. Who Will Be the First to Go Public:
Dominates a vertical market with over $500M ARR.
12,000 customers, very high net review retention (NRR) even with SMB customers.
Growing 40-50% cashflow neutral.
What do you know now that you wish you had known when you started investing?
What would yours be? @edsim @shaunmmaguire @honam?
Liked this a lot from @jasonlk 👇 pic.twitter.com/4lM8keyQVy
— Harry Stebbings (@HarryStebbings) January 5, 2024
3. Will Databricks and Stripe Go Public:
Stripe will, it is time for them and 2024 will likely be the year.
Databricks probably should not, and wait until 2025. The growth is there, but theiir losses are still large and they may need to reduce them for an optimal IPO.
Public companies today are so efficient, they should wait till they are more efficient as they will be comped against the others.
4. Did Figma Kill the M&A Market:
There is a huge appetite for M&A today. Why? Growth slowed for everyone in 2023 and they now need to buy growth.
There will be less direct competitor buys and more ancillary product buys.
5. What Happens to VC Funding in 2024:
VCs will deploy as much as LPs will give them. Many LPs have huge liquidity. They will continue to commit to new managers. Those managers will deploy. Early stage will remain unaffected.
6. Will AI Change the Game for Enterprise Software?
No. Where does the extra budget come from?
CFOs do not have an AI line on their budget.
For the first time, we are seeing a saturation in IT spend.
7. Why is Jason Worried for The First Time About SaaS:
We are trading at 6x revenues in the public markets. This is the 3rd year of crummy multiples.
Public companies are also decelarating, they are growing at their slowest rate.
I am worried this could be permanent.
8. What does Jason Know Now That He Wishes He Had Known Earlier in Investing:
If you don’t know in 20 minutes that this is one of the best founders you’ve met. Don’t do the investment.
If you do not know what to do, just invest more in your best.
9. What Do All Founders Need to Know in 2024:
You have to constantly ask your investors; am I fundable?
At the end of the day, usually, only one investor wil truly have your back. Figure out who that investor is.
10. 2023 Awards:
Best Company:
OpenAI
Midjourney
Best Founder:
Jensen Huang, CEO Nvidia
Brian Armstrong (Jason disagrees)
Best Early-Stage Fund:
YC with Garry Tan
Kleiner Perkins with Mamoon
