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How Correlated are the Web 2 and Web 3 Software Markets?

Tom Tunguz

In the last few weeks, public software company multiples have halved. Beyond the most recent cycle, how often do the web2 and web3 software markets move in synchrony? Beyond the most recent cycle, how often do the web2 and web3 software markets move in synchrony? The cryptocoins appreciated much more than software.

Software 310
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Clouded Judgement 11.3.23 - No Sign of Re-Acceleration in Software

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Some of these drops rival one of the worst ever software earnings reaction of Tableau in 2016! On Thursday the software index (WCLD) was up ~3%! So what’s holding up software stocks valuations?? Atlassian was down ~10%.

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The Biggest Buyers of Software Companies in 2016

Tom Tunguz

In 2016, I believe they will enjoy a very active acquisition environment. The roughly 60 or so publicly traded software companies hold more than $380B in cash and short term investments on their balance sheets. In 2015, startups benefitted from a vibrant fund raising market.

Software 100
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How Will the 52% Correction in the Stock Market Impact the Startup Fundraising Market?

Tom Tunguz

The public software sector is weathering the second deepest multiple contraction in the last decade. Only the 2016 reduction of 57% surpasses it. The question on every software founder’s mind today must be, how will this affect the private financing markets? These are marked in peachpuff orange rectangles above.

Marketing 362
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How Low Could Valuations Go?

Tom Tunguz

The public software market continues to compress. Enterprise-value-to-forward-revenue multiples are now below 2016 levels for the first time in 6 in years. But it does illustrate the impact of rates on software valuations. It happened in Feburary 2016. The 25th percentile of companies trade at 3.3x today compared to 4.0x

Banking 260
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The Fifth SaaS Correction

Tom Tunguz

Since 2016, public software has witnessed four corrections. Also, 2014 to 2016 saw a 57% reduction in multiples and of course after 2008. In fact, the 75th percentile multiple has appreciated 25% annually since 2016 and the median has increased by approximately 20%. Today, we’re in the midst of the fifth.

SaaS 345
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Sales Efficiency through Covid : Reading the Tea Leaves for Startups

Tom Tunguz

We can examine the sales efficiency of public software companies to get a sense. Since 2016, the average public software witnessed its sales efficiency winnowed from 52% to 47%, a decline of about 10%. This chart segments the public software companies into the 25th, 50th & 75th percentiles. I observe a few trends.