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How Will a Venture Capital Recovery Feel? Observations from 2008

Tom Tunguz

What will a venture capital turnaround feel like? In 2008, I had just become a venture capitalist. Then GreenDot’s IPO in Q2 2010 at $1.4b Will it be gradual or sudden? What will change the sentiment in the market? Three months later, Lehman fell & the Global Financial Crisis started. at $1.5b.

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A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Sand Hill Road

Tom Tunguz

In the 2000s, when capital was scarcer, founders & VCs would derive round size by debating the quantum of money required to achieve Series B milestones. When capital is scarce, it’s rationed. In the 2010s, US venture capital grew 40x in 10 years. Capital scarcity curtails startup operation.

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Mean Reversion: When Will Startup Investing Return to Normal?

Tom Tunguz

The post-Covid surge in venture capital pushed valuations & activity to record breaking heights. The red is a linear model based on data from 2010 to 2018 that predicts activity rates for each financing series of US & Canadian software companies. [1] Since then, investing activity dropped precipitously.

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The Supercharger Boosting Startupland Fundraising and Exits

Tom Tunguz

If the government lends at a low rate, then the cost of capital is less, so companies should be able to invest more at the same cost, and grow faster. We should expect four outcomes: More money should enter venture capital funds. Let’s go through these one by one using the Pitchbook Venture Monitor Report.

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We?re About To See a Lot More SaaS Debt

SaaStr

This article looks at the history of SaaS as it relates to financial capital and production capital. I argue that standard saas metrics make it possible for founders to scale using debt capital (production capital thats cheaper) instead of solely relying on venture capital (financial capital thats more expensive). .

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The growing dissonance between two business models (SaaS and VC)

The Angel VC

Had I seen a SaaS startup with this growth curve in my first 2-3 years of SaaS investing (in 2008-2010) I probably would have asked “where do I have to sign?”. Not yet convinced that you shouldn’t raise venture capital? :) Let us know ! I’ll keep you posted.) And chances are that it would have been a good investment.

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The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

Tom Tunguz

The article pointed to the seeming collapse in the amount of venture capital raised by San Francisco startups relative to other regions. The slowing of venture investment more broadly across the US serves as a backdrop to San Francisco’s particularly strong correction. Note, the levels still exceed 2010-2013.